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Intervention Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Nigeria

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Abstract:

This study reports on the development in road traffic accidents in Nigeria since 1994. The preliminary survey took Edo state, one of the 36 constituent States of Nigeria, as a case study. An intervention model, which is a combination of an ARIMA noise and dichotomous models, was employed in analyzing a seven-year monthly accident time series obtained from the Federal Office of Statistics and the Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria. The Durbin Watson’s test statistic, used to ascertain the adequacy of our ARIMA predictive model, suggested that the intervention model adopted has a good fit. The study points up a significant reduction in the rate of road traffic accidents through multiple policy interventions of Nigeria.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 18-19)

Pages:

375-382

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.18-19.375

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Online since:

June 2007

Authors:

A.C. Igboanugo, E.Francis Ekhuemelo

Keywords:

Backshift Operator, Correlogram, Dichotomous Function, Intervention Analysis, Road Traffic Accidents

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© 2007 Trans Tech Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved

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