Paper Title:
The Probabilistic Method of Failure Analysis to Transmission Facilities under Ice Storms
  Abstract

Based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT), the Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPDs) of meteorological variables wind speed and freezing precipitation is simulated. Considering the dependence of them, a joint probability distribution is calculated by the Copula function. Further more, the probability distributions of ice loads and wind loads on transmission lines are analyzed, and the failure probability of broken lines and collapsed towers under ice storms is calculated. The accuracy and validity of this analytical method is demonstrated with comparison between numerical results and the historical datas of Chen Zhou power transmission systems.

  Info
Periodical
Edited by
Yi-Min Deng, Aibing Yu, Weihua Li and Di Zheng
Pages
1525-1528
DOI
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.37-38.1525
Citation
W. J. Xu, H. M. Yang, M. Y. Lai, S. Wang, "The Probabilistic Method of Failure Analysis to Transmission Facilities under Ice Storms", Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vols. 37-38, pp. 1525-1528, 2010
Online since
November 2010
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