Paper Title:
Comparison of Two Methods on Population Prediction in Small Town Planning
  Abstract

Accurate population prediction has fundamental importance in small town planning. In this paper, two empirical prediction models, integrated growth rate and regression analysis, have been developed with demographic data of 2000-2005 in Gaotang county, Shandong province. The two models were then applied to predict the population in 2008, and their results were compared with the actual population, respectively, to evaluate the modeling accuracy. The results showed that both methods were capable of providing accurate population prediction; however, the accuracy of the integrated growth rate was a little higher than that of regression analysis in terms of their differences from the actual population in 2008.

  Info
Periodical
Chapter
Chapter 6: Frontiers of Manufacturing and Design
Edited by
Dongye Sun, Wen-Pei Sung and Ran Chen
Pages
3845-3848
DOI
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.71-78.3845
Citation
F. X. Gu, W. B. Liu, "Comparison of Two Methods on Population Prediction in Small Town Planning", Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vols. 71-78, pp. 3845-3848, 2011
Online since
July 2011
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Price
$32.00
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