Five-axis CNC machine tool is the top product of numerically controlled machine tool. Kinmatic accuracy is an important index to evaluate the quality of mechanism. Kinematic accuracy analysis of the Five-axis machine tool in previous study ignores the randomness of each input error component, so the conclusions are imprecise. Using the homogeneous transformation, inverse kinematics of VMC650 Five-axis machine tool is calculated. Based on Multi-body System Theory, error model of the machine tool is presented. Considering the randomness of every input error components, applying the Monte Carlo method, math model of kinematic reliability of the mechanism is deduced. The calculation method of kinematics reliability are put forward applying point evaluation and track evaluation. Kinematic reliability analysis provides some theoretical reference for improving the machining accuracy and operation life of machine tool.