Paper Title:
A Fuzzy Model of Scenario Planning Based on the Credibility Theory and Fuzzy Programming
  Abstract

Uncertainty, complexity and paradigm shift are three challenges that are inherent in emerging technologies. Scenarios provide background for decision-making by clarifying possible paths of emerging technologies. Based on the analysis of three basic stages of empirical scenario construction, i.e. analysis phase, subsystem analysis phase and syntheses phase, credibility theory and fuzzy programming are introduced to dissolve scenario planning problems. This paper adopt such research road as (1) measurement of factors’ credibility, (2) analysis of pairwise factors’ compatibility, (3) eliminate incompatible scenarios through pruning rules, and (4) choice of scenarios through fuzzy programming. And then, the choice of scenarios can be conducted by expected value model. In the end, the further research fields are also discussed.

  Info
Periodical
Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 328-330)
Chapter
Chapter 3: Mechatronics and Automation
Edited by
Liangchi Zhang, Chunliang Zhang and Zichen Chen
Pages
2423-2426
DOI
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.328-330.2423
Citation
Z. G. Shi, "A Fuzzy Model of Scenario Planning Based on the Credibility Theory and Fuzzy Programming", Advanced Materials Research, Vols. 328-330, pp. 2423-2426, 2011
Online since
September 2011
Authors
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Price
$32.00
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Chapter 14: Testing Technology and Mechanical Dynamics
Abstract:In the paper, some properties related to characteristic function of a fuzzy variable are discussed based on uncertainty theory.
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