Paper Title:
Evolution of Hydro-Climatic Elements in the Three Gorges Reservoir under Changing Environment
  Abstract

Climate change is one of the major global issues commonly concerned by international communities. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir which is the largest water conservancy project in China as the study area, this study attempts to evaluate the variability of hydro-climatic elements including precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours during past 49 years (1961-2009) based on observed meteorological data, and predict the evolution trends of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and runoff in the future 30 years (2021-2050) under climate change based on a distributed hydrological model and climate model outputs. Specifically, the temporal variations and sudden changes of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours during past 49 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir are analyzed combining moving-average and linear regression with Mann-Kendall method, and the precipitation and temperature data in the future 30 years are obtained from the average dataset of 20 global climate models using a statistical downscaling model, and the evapotranspiration and runoff data in the future are obtained based on the validated hydrological model. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2009, the precipitation slightly decreased and the estimated sudden change time was 1973, the temperature significantly increased and the estimated sudden change time was 1963, the relative humidity decreased but there was no sudden change time estimated, the sunshine hours significantly decreased and the estimated sudden change time was 1967; 2) in the future, comparing with the historical average, the temperature in the region will increase by 1.3°C and the evapotranspiration will increase by 2.8%, while the precipitation and runoff will decrease by 0.8% and 8.2% respectively. Although the precipitation will not change greatly, the reduction extent of runoff is larger than that of precipitation, bringing forward higher requirements for integrated water resources management in the Three Gorges Reservoir.

  Info
Periodical
Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 356-360)
Chapter
Chapter 12: Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering
Edited by
Hexing Li, Qunjie Xu and Daquan Zhang
Pages
2376-2382
DOI
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.356-360.2376
Citation
X. Y. Ding, H. D. Zhou, Y. H. Wang, Y. C. Wang, "Evolution of Hydro-Climatic Elements in the Three Gorges Reservoir under Changing Environment", Advanced Materials Research, Vols. 356-360, pp. 2376-2382, 2012
Online since
October 2011
Export
Price
$32.00
Share

In order to see related information, you need to Login.

In order to see related information, you need to Login.

Authors: Jing Guo, Kai Yu Cheng, Li Hua Xiong, Hua Chen
Chapter 12: Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering
Abstract:Under the A2 climate change scenario, the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin are predicted by coupling the general circulation models...
4194
Authors: Jian Liu, Jian Qing Zhai, Hui Tao, Xu Chun Ye
Chapter 12: Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering
Abstract:The study explored global climate change influence on water resources in Yellow River basin. A HBV hydrological model was developed to...
3480