Fracture toughness data from the cleavage resistance test of structural steels often show a large scatter. Geometry dependency as well as the scatter makes it difficult to evaluate appropriate fracture integrity of cracked components. To address these restrictions, several stochastic models have been proposed by Beremin group, Mudry and other researchers while each of them employs specific estimation scheme and micro-mechanical parameters. The purpose of this paper is to investigate applicability of the Weibull stress model in transition temperature regime and to quantify constraint effect among different-sized CT and PCVN specimens. The constituting parameters m and σu are determined at three temperatures by maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) technique in use of FE analysis results and experimental data of PCVN specimens. Also, failure probabilities of PCVN and CT specimens are calculated from the Weibull parameters, which are used for derivation of a prototype of toughness scale diagram. The diagram provides a technical basis to resolve transferability issue in the same material under different temperatures and constraint conditions.