This study investigated a method for estimating hardness distribution in welds, considering the effect of phase transformation and weld thermal cycles. Hardness distribution in welds was estimated from fractions and hardness of each microstructure by using rule of mixture. Finite element heat conduction analysis was performed to calculate weld thermal cycles. Microstructures formed corresponding to the thermal cycle were also calculated based on the continuous cooling transformation (CCT) diagram. The method mentioned above was applied to welds of Ultra-Narrow Gap welding process, which was developed for welding of ultrafine-grained steels. The calculated thermal cycles in the welds corresponded with measured results. Moreover, the estimated hardness distribution in the welds, which were estimated by using calculated thermal cycles and the phase fraction of each microstructure, was also in good agreement with measured values.