Papers by Author: Dong Xiao Niu

Abstract: This paper analyzed two different types of nuclear fuel cycle which refferred to one-through fuel cycle and close fuel cycle (uranium-plutonium fuel cycle). Based on specific economic elements related to each cycle process, this paper built a model to evaluate PWR nuclear fuel cycle’s economy. Then, for given data of PWR, empirical analysis and sensitivity analysis were carried out. The result showed the superiority of the close fuel cycle compared to the one-through cycle.

Abstract: The purpose of power load forecasting is to provide the development status and level of the region's future load, providing the basis for the electric power production department and management department to make production and development plans. This paper puts forward the grey prediction model modified by Fourier series residual. First of all, the moving average method is used to preprocess the original data and weaken the burr of the original data. Secondly, the GM (1, 1) is used to estimate the load of the selected sample area. On this basis, use the Fourier series to revise the residual error of the grey forecasting model, making the model fitting of historical data as much as possible. The example analysis results show that the grey prediction model modified by Fourier series residual has the higher prediction accuracy compared with the general GM (1,1), proving the validity of the model.

Abstract: Rational equity structure is the key to improve the operating performance. On the basis of the basic theory of international experts, the paper selects the data of utilities listed companies, and takes the principal component analysis and multiple linear regression model to build the index system of utilities for evaluating the operating performance after a series of data processing methods, at last, conducts the empirical analysis of the relationship between equity structure and operating performance. The results show that there is no significant correlation between the proportion of the state-owned restricted shares and the company's profitability; there is a positive correlation between the proportion of outstanding shares and the company’s profitability. Accordingly, the paper proposes some recommendations on management engineering at last to improve the company’s operating performance and the efficiency of management engineering.

Abstract: This paper constructs the evaluation index system of electricity competitiveness in terminal energy consumption, evaluates the electricity competitiveness in Ningxia region from 2005 to 2011 using principal component analysis (PCA), and compares the evaluation results of PCA, the linear weighted method, the comprehensive index method and TOPSIS-grey correlation method. The compatibility degree and difference degree of each method are analyzed and calculated to verify the applicability of the PCA. The results show that PCA is the most scientific and appropriate evaluation method.

Abstract: This paper sets the thermal power plant security management system as the research object. First of all, with the application of the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM), we establish a multi-level hierarchical structure model on analysis of the influencing factors of thermal power plant security management. Furthermore, based on the structure model, we use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine weights of all the influencing factors, in order to identify the main factors. Finally, according to the identified main factors, we provide several suggestions for security management of thermal power plant.

Abstract: This paper puts forward a residential electricity forecasting method based on FOAGMNN. Correlation analysis was adopted to select the key influencing factors of residential electricity forecasting. Finally, annual disposable income, population, households, per capita floor space, preceding electricity consumption are choosed as the key influencing factors. Through simulation example using the data of Hangzhou residential electricity consumption from 2000 to 2011, the results showed that the proposed model outperformed the other models and is suitable for residential electricity prediction.

Abstract: Fussy evaluation model will be used in this article to evaluate the operational safety performance of nuclear power plant. Through the combination of the existing three indicator system, the article builds a safety performance indicator system and fatherly establishes evaluation matrix of the importance level and performance level,then gets the weigh and confidence of every indicator. Finally, the evaluation results of the operational safety performance of nuclear power plant can be obtained after analyzing the confidence and evaluation matrix.

Abstract: The application of autonomous wind-solar power generation system will break the bottleneck of sustainable city and regional development, and it is an important method to solve the world energy crisis. Not only can solve the problem of power supply in remote mountainous areas, but also can be used in the city buildings and park areas. Therefore, the feasibility study of autonomous wind-solar power generation system is particularly necessary. Firstly, this paper has analyzed the background of wind-solar system. Moreover, the significance of evaluation index system for feasibility of autonomous wind-solar power generation system has be discussed in this paper. Secondly, the paper has constituted the comprehensive evaluation index system. In addition, the paper has discussed consistent and dimensionless processing method of evaluation index. Finally, the paper has come up with the method that determines the index weight. The paper will provide a theoretical basis for large-scale use of autonomous wind-solar power generation system.

Abstract: According to errors between the predicted values and the actual values, this paper establishes a fuzzy soft set in the form of membership function, then utilizes Dempster combination rule in evidence theory to synthesize the prediction results to obtain the weights of each single model, and thus builds a new hybrid combination forecasting model. The example shows that the proposed model can effectively improve the accuracy of mid-long term load forecasting, and is more accurate and credible than the combination forecasting model based on entropy or simply fuzzy soft set theory.

Abstract: Demand-side response allows electricity users to actively participate in load management and to solve the problem of electricity supply shortage. This paper studies the model of demand-side response based on TOU price and economic compensation, the impacts on avoidable load and transferable load are respectively studied. Then, the summer load situation of a company is taken as an example, the sensitivity of each factor are also analyzed, so as to achieve the result of load shifting and promote the stable operation of the grid.