Papers by Author: Fa Jie Wei

Abstract: Due to high uncertainty and complexity, the flight test missions of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) are implemented with high risk. To mitigate the risk, many scholars have done a lot of researches to study the risk events in flight test. The different interrelations and the potential synergetic effects among the relevant risk events related to a decision make it a challenging issue to create explicit relationships of the risk events. Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) appeared as a methodological tool for dealing with this kind of complexity in the 1960’s. CIA can worked with other methodological approaches to increase its functionality. This article uses a method to generate important risk events and scenarios about what may happen in the future flight tests. In this method, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is used to combined with CIA to improve the final forecasting. This scenarios-based method allows working with large sets of risk events and can detect critical risk events. The final results of the method can be represented by graphics. The practical implications of the proposed method are illustrated with an example.

Abstract: Most new materials are not mature since there are all kinds of uncertainties due to many factors, such as technical complexity, shifting objectives/scopes, and poor management. Application of a new material means we must accept all opportunities and threats, while it exists a lot of uncertain information in the process of decision making. This paper reviews the traditional methods of risk analysis, such as risk matrix, and introduces uncertain data in decision to describe two attributes of risk —probability and consequence. The data of risk collected is then processed based on prospect theory, take into account the behavior patterns and psychological factors which are not aware of in a traditional approach. At last, an example proves the improved risk analysis method is rational and scientific.

Abstract: The life cycle performance indicator of construction engineering structure is the basic indicator of the core research indicator system of construction engineering life cycle. This paper has the reliability indicator of construction structure as a foundation, analyzes the general calculating methods of construction structure and reliable performance. On the other hand, it establishes prediction model of construction structure durability based on Markova chain, and introduces a practical case to analysis and test.

Abstract: At present, China's construction cost management lags far behind foreign countries, especially in the study on structural and material characteristics of construction. Based on Radial basis function neural network nonlinear model, the paper selected ordinary commercial civil engineering data of concrete building construction in the 2003-2007 years as samples, chose structural and material characteristics as cost indicators and estimated the cost prices. The results show that the method meets the requirements in the precision. Compared with other methods, it has the advantage of speed and generalization ability. The method provides project managers a better basis for decision making.