Papers by Author: Lin Wei Ma

Abstract: In this paper, we present a density-method-based model to allocate the refining cost to petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel. By using this model, we also present an empirical study of China, which is based on a virtual crude oil refining process proposed referring to the technical configuration of oil refining industry in China. Three scenarios of the cost of gasoline and diesel are illustrated referring to different settings of the change of the international crude oil prices. The results indicate that the cost of gasoline and diesel change nearly the same amplitude as the change of crude oil price. However, the margin between the cost of gasoline and diesel will slightly increase with the rise of crude oil price. Besides, we also present a sensitivity analysis of the operation cost of each unit in the refining process. The results reveal that the operation cost of catalytic reforming is the most important influencing factor of the cost of gasoline, while the operation cost of hydrogen cracking influences the cost of diesel mostly.

Abstract: In competitive petroleum markets, oil price forecasting has always been an important strategic tool for oil producers and consumers to predict market behavior. In this study, we researched the monthly crude oil price in the period between 1988 and 2009. Firstly, we present a state space model to represent oil price system. Secondly, we determine the parameter estimates of the state space model for oil price through a faster algorithm to compute the likelihood function. Lastly, we use the Kalman filter method to estimate the next three months’ oil price and compare it with the econometric structure model as a benchmark. Empirical results indicate that the state space model performs well in terms of some standard statistics indices, and it may be a promising method for short-term oil price forecasting.

Abstract: The rising international oil prices will cause the loss of national GDP and the establishment of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) could avoid this loss as much as possible. The oil price-GDP elasticity coefficient is an important parameter in calculating strategic petroleum reserve, but since it is difficult to obtain, it is also hard to calculate. This paper provides the fitting formula of oil price-GDP elasticity coefficient based on the regression analyzing of literature data. China’s oil price-GDP elasticity coefficient in recent years has been analyzed and predictions for future trends in different situations have been made. Finally, the predicted oil price-GDP elasticity coefficient is used to calculate the size of China's strategic petroleum reserve and its earnings.

Abstract: Natural gas plays an important role in industry, transportation and electric power. The first of all problems to solve is to ensure energy security while meeting the demand for gas. Through analyzing the connotation and the frame of energy security, it clears about the significant of the security of energy and gas supply in China, and sets up the benefits and losses model of natural gas, analyzes the loss of economic cost and the obtained economic benefits based on the process of SNG to protect natural gas security. By analyzing the case, the results show that there exists a most advantage point between the loss of economic cost and the obtained economic benefits in the process of natural gas security, China could develop SNG scale of 50 billion cubic meters production by the end of 2030, at this time, it will get the maximum net income of nearly 5 billion RMB. In addition, the results show that the two most important parameters which influence the profits and losses are energy consumption GDP elasticity coefficient and the nature gas price in the process of SNG guaranteeing natural gas security.