Papers by Author: Rui Ma

Abstract: The prediction accuracy of wind power is important to the power system operation. Based on BP neural network used to forecast directly and time-series method used to forecast indirectly, the output wind power prediction of 4 hours in advance was studied in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance of direct prediction is better, and the reason for that was analyzed in the paper. Finally, error analysis of prediction was researched. Comprehensive evaluation of prediction error which contains horizontal and longitudinal error evaluation was proposed.

Abstract: Wind speed prediction is critical for wind energy conversion system since it not only can relieve or avoid the disadvantageous impact on power system, but also can enhance the competitive ability of wind power plants against others in electricity markets. The model presented in this paper was based on artificial neural network (ANN) and the selection of the model parameters was presented in detail. The autocorrelation function (ACF) of wind speed time series was used to determine the input variables of the neural network. The simulation was carried out with the proposed ANN model.The conclusion that the optimal network structure may be different corresponding to different error evaluation was drawn through a large number of simulation experiments. And the simulaiton results showed that the ANN model is less than 10.77% in terms of root mean square error and 5.86% in terms of mean absolute error compared with the persistence model.

Abstract: Above rated wind speed, the wind turbine speed and output power are maintained near the rated values through the coordinative control of torque and pitch angle. Due to the non-linear behavior of the wind turbine, the traditional PID control is not effective in the pitch control. And accurate mathematical model of wind turbine is very difficult to get. In order to solve the problem, the fuzzy adaptive tuning PID control algorithm is proposed in the paper. About torque control strategy, constant torque control mode and constant power control mode are simulated respectively. Based on the analysis and comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of both modes, a mix control mode is proposed in order to give consideration to both torque and power. Simulation was carried out with the proposed torque control and pitch control strategy in MATLAB and GH Bladed software. The results proved that output power is optimized and the response of the wind turbine is good