Papers by Keyword: Grey Forecasting Model

Abstract: In this paper, a multifactor grey forecasting model of agriculture output value is proposed. Agriculture output value is very important in the country. It can help us to well know the situation of agriculture, and to modify the policy of agriculture. When the data change greatly, one-factor forecasting model may not be get good results. Grey forecasting model with multifactor would be better. From the simulation, this multifactor grey forecasting model with gross and total farm output value can get better effects.

Abstract: Natural gas as a main clean energy has received national attention,especially under the influence of "shale gas revolution" in the U.S. China has a large shale gas reserves,so Chinese shale gas development has also been widespread concerned.This paper uses GM(1,1) to predict Chinese natural gas consumption in the next few years.The results show that natural gas consumption will continue to rise,and increase rapidly.Under the influence of the current international Low-carbon energy transformation,this paper based on the consumption forecast,and combined with the development of shale gas in current China and the experience of shale gas development in the United States.Put forward some suggestions on such as shale gas exploration, the core technology, infrastructure, laws,regulations and policies,to improve the ratio of natural gas in primary energy consumption structure.

Abstract: The rubber industry is an important sector in the national economy. The article took the natural rubber and synthetic rubber as the main studying objects to analyze and forecast the amount of supply and demand of Chinas rubber raw materials. Analyzed the status of supply and demand of Chinas rubber raw materials from 2006 to 2011, and established the Grey Forecasting Model to forecast the supply and demand from 2012 to 2017 in China, and concluded that the prosperous supply and demand of rubber raw materials would be continued in the future.

Abstract: This paper carried out interpolation processing to the groundwater hydrology data of Minqin oasis from 2000 to 2009, via ArcGIS software. Analyzed the result, it was concluded that the distribution rule about spatio-temporal distribution and change of the groundwater depth and mineralization. Using MATLAB the program language, the grey forecasting model was well fitted compared to the time series forecasting model. For the next five years, the groundwater depth and mineralization changes were forecasted, and the author put forward some concrete proposals.

Abstract: In this paper, a novel method to estimate ARMA time-varying parameter is proposed, based on ESCGMmv grey forecasting model. The estimation procedure of this method consists of two phases, first estimating online ARMA parameter by the least squares method. Then, using ESCGMmv grey forecasting model to forecast the error between and .The model gives an adequate description of the system under consideration. Finally, modify the estimate parameter by the estimate error. Simulation results confirm that the propose method can obtain more accurate estimate time- varying parameter.

Abstract: Structural damage is too difficult to identification. In this paper, a new method using grey forecasting model to identification the structural damage with past and present data is proposed. Based on the last few years of modal parameters, structural parameters including stiffness and mass of the structural were further predicted the trend using grey forecasting model. Here proposed large structure systems with natural decay and unnatural decay. Natural decay modal parameter can be get from the grey forecasting model, compare with the modal parameter identify currently, by a set value to analysis structural damage. Experimental results verify the theoretical analysis.

Abstract: The grey control theory is used to predict electric power demand in this paper. Original data is processed by the Generation Method. Many unimportant factors affecting electric power demand are removed,and useful information is extracted from original data. The differential fitting equation is set up,and grey prediction model modified by slip average method is presented with residual modification. The current year data is possessed with high weight,which avoids excessive fluctuation. Predicting results show that the model is effective to improve the predict precision.

Abstract: “Code of valuation with bill quantity of construction works”(GB50500-2008)published in July 2008 proposes a new concept of “Bidding Control Price” instead of “base bid price”. This paper firstly introduces the calculation program of Bidding Control Price which is different from the calculation program of base bid price. The calculation method of material price risk changes greater and it is the focus of our discussion. Article probes into the impact of material price risk on project cost, applying Grey Forecasting Model to discuss a reasonable method of determining material price risk, which provides a new feasible solution to determine an appropriate cost of project. Article concludes with examples which show that different material price risks have great impact of project costs. This paper has some instructive significance for the calculation of project cost in new code.