Papers by Keyword: Risk

Abstract: The big challenge for each company is the implementation of an appropriate risk management strategy. Through this work, we seek to draw up an inventory of Moroccan companies supply chain. The objective is to identify the main risks, their relationship with the performance of the supply chain and to establish an overview of the risk management systems. For this reason, a research model was developed and concretized by quantitative data collected from 29 Moroccan companies. The analysis of the data show that the performance of the supply chain is strongly influenced by the importance of supply chain risk in particular the supplier and demand risks, and leads to insist on the importance of integrating a device adapted to the management of these Risks, especially in the upstream part of the supply chain.

Abstract: Despite being natural processes of the Earth’s surface dynamics, mass movements can be accelerated or sparked by human interference. Human activities such as developments in highly susceptible mass movements areas have been the main cause of accidents linked to landslides in Brazilian urban hillsides. In Natal - RN, the existence of areas with high declivity combined with inappropriate human occupation has been making the city vulnerable to stability problems of slopes. In this context, this work aimed to map the risk and analyze situations of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of incidence of mass movements present in São José do Jacó community, in Rocas neighborhood, Natal/RN. In order to map the risk, the methodology proposed by [1] was applied and adjusted to the characteristics of the study area. The mapping results showed that São José do Jacó presented a high degree of risk, ranging from high to very high. The analysis of hazard, vulnerability and risk has made possible to observe the factors that triggers mass movements in the area, among which: steep slopes, disordered cut slopes, dense occupation, inefficient drainage system, septic tanks and cesspools on the edge or in the middle of the talus and low/medium vegetation cover can be identified. The detailed research of the hazard, vulnerability and risk situations found in São José do Jacó community has enabled a better understanding of the area’s aspects, which lead to the obtention of high degree of risk.

Abstract: Offshore structure, particularly fixed offshore structures, should be kept in the performance for the fit-for-purpose condition during their operating lifetime. For fixed offshore structures that exceed their designated life years, the proper Structural Integrity Management System (SIMS) should be developed and applied. Despite the fixed offshore platforms have their service life, there are still platforms that continue to operate exceeding their service lifetime. These ageing platforms should be taken care thoroughly to avoid the consequences that could take casualties. This paper will propose the proper initiation of SIMS development for ageing fixed offshore platforms in Indonesia, by taking an example at Bekapai Field Platforms in East Kalimantan. Using HAZID technique and several ranking criteria, the platforms are assessed and ranked. Platforms that categorized in critical condition are grouped based on similarities in geometry and function. The highest rank is analyzed in computer Finite Element Analysis (FEA) Software with modification based on latest inspection result. This method is proven to be a proper method to be used as a maintenance program for ageing fixed offshore platforms in Indonesia.

Abstract: This paper briefly presents the investigation of risk based decision making for mobile mooring system. This paper used bow tie analysis to analyze the risk of mobile mooring failure. Bow tie analysis consists of FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) on left part and ETA (Event Tree Analysis) on the right part. FTA is useful to determine the potential causes from critical top event until the undesired events are obtained. ETA (Event Tree Analysis) is helpful to define the possible consequence by relating an initiating event to various consequence models. The investigation consists of determining the critical hazards of mooring system failure through investigating the root causes, the consequences, and the frequency index.

Abstract: This paper reports the description of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) methodology design and implementation in an industrial system, where it could be used as a tool to assure products quality, and as a mean to improve operational performance of the production cycle. The work was developed in a Romanian sugar factory, in co-operation with part of the internal staff, chosen as FMEA team members, and it was focused on the study of the crystal sugar lines. All the work done permits to increase company’s knowledge and the control of the capacity on processes and products. The FMEA methodology operated in different production phases allowed to study and analyse every single step of production cycle and to achieve an exhaustive knowledge and improvement of products and processes.

Abstract: Production lines are complex mechatronic systems which have in their structure mechanical, electronic, control and software subsystems. The complexity of these systems is identified for mass production of paper napkins. The aim is to decide on the choice of the production line in terms of ensuring growth of value of the business and satisfaction of customers needs. The decision making process is carried out in steps of formulating the investment problem, technical features of the project, economic evaluation of the project based on a financial model in Microsoft Excel and analysis of project risks utilizing Monte Carlo simulations in the Crystal Ball system.

Abstract: A variety of engineering errors can cause a defect in vehicles. Problems are usually concentrated on models that were produced during a certain time period at one specific plant. Consumers who encounter such problems can report them, fill petitions or put online complaints on specific car manufacturers. Vehicle defects can cause many problems and even endanger human life. That is why, in the interest of safety, any recall affecting the consumer vehicle should be completed without delay. The paper presents recalls of three car manufacturers, namely: Volkswagen group, PSA, and Kia analyzed between years 2005 to 2015. The results are presented in graphs and diagrams. First part of the paper discusses the current terminology and procedures of car recalls. In the second part the three car manufacturers are presented. Recall analysis creates the third part of the paper and the results are presented in form of graphs and diagrams. Also the error rate of each car manufacturer is calculated and presented in the paper.

Abstract: The industry of oil and gas will be always constantly adapting to changes over time, whether in terms of technology, market demands or price thus increase the operational risk and danger in the operation. The purpose of this research is to study on the current practices of safety management implemented in the upstream part in the industry and its effectiveness, altogether to emphasize on the importance of safety management system in the industry. This research focus on the implemented safety management in upstream sector of oil and gas industry especially in PETRONAS Carigali Sdn. Bhd in Malaysia and evaluate and investigate its effectiveness. Questionnaire survey is conducted regarding safety and the data and results gained from the survey are analysed using the Relative Importance Index (RII) and also by using Average Index (AI). The research put safety management as the main factor in preventing and reducing accidents and incidents to occur in industries of the oil and gas and emphasize on awareness and importance of managing safety in oil and gas industry.

Abstract: The paper presents a theoretical and practical approach to the concept of risk assessment of exposure to noise, specific to activity for use of pyrotechnic articles Category 4, from the perspective of ensuring the security of the effect resulting after fireworks displaying with these types of pyrotechnic products. For estimation and risk assessment using these types of products, researches has been undertaken to make an evaluation process procedure in order to provide data and information to prevent and combat the causes that may create a hazard.

Abstract: This paper investigated to what extend risk analyses may play its role in the development of feasibility study of Riau regional water supply projects (regional SPAM). This SPAM services coverage area may cover 4 (four) regions in Riau province such as; Rokan Hulu regency, Rokan Hilir, Bengkalis and Dumai. The capacity of this SPAM is 500 l/second. Total financing required for development of this SPAM was approximately Rp. 344 billion. Project finance will be obtained from budget sharing scheme from APBN (Rp. 140 billion or 41%), APBD (Rp. 62 billion or 18%), and the private sector (Rp. 141 billion or 41%). Three stages of risk analyses have been applied in this paper, such as; (i) risk identification, (ii) risk assessment, and (iii) risk mitigation. Based on the simulation result, it was identified that the initial project NPV was in the rage of-Rp. 6.68 billion up to Rp. 18.01 billion. The mean value of the projected NPV was Rp. 6.27 billion. This project is considered to be risky to proceed, as there is 90% probability the projected NPV < Rp. 0. After risk mitigation procedure will be applied, there is a mean value of the project NPV is Rp. 9.9 billion (increase by 30% from the initial NPV). Four significant risk variables affected NPV performance are identified as follow; (i) engineering cost for constructing water treatment plant and facilities, (ii) cost of pipelines installation and accessories, (ii) electricity costs, and (iv) chemical cost expenditure. A reduction of technical uncertainties including design changes; redundant of engineering risk costs, introduction of energy efficient technology during project operation may reduce electricity and chemical costs. Hence, based on the simulation results, it is confirmed that, the risk analyses procedure may improve regional SPAM regional technical and economy performances (e.i. NPV parameters).