Papers by Keyword: Risk Analysis

Abstract: SAFEPORT safety system aims to daily reports to the Sines harbor administration, potential emergency situations regarding ships’ operation in port areas caused by extreme weather-oceanographic conditions, that may occur in the next three days. It consists of a set of numerical models and a qualitative risk assessment and forecasting. It uses forecasts provided offshore of the area under the study of sea agitation, wind and tide. The characterization of the response of the free and moored ships at a berth is performed using numerical models which deal with formulations in the frequency and time domain. The system issue alerts, through danger levels associated with risk levels of exceedance of recommended values for movements and forces imposed on ship mooring systems. SAFEPORT can be adapted to any port. So far, it has been developed and adapted to three terminals of the port of Sines, where three different ships were simulated. This paper presents the developments made to date of the safety system, in terms of its implementation and validation. The numerical models run every day, in real-time mode, in a computer cluster. The results are disseminated on a web page and a mobile application in a variety of formats.

Abstract: Drilling engineers and operators are stuck with challenges associated with loss circulation of drilling fluids in wellbores during drilling operation. At such times, a clear and careful decision is required in order to minimize cost or save resources that would have been lost in the bid to remedy the situation. This then informs the need to deploy reliable tools that will inform useful decisions as drawn from a thorough risk-analysis coined from the information gathered from the formation characteristics and operating pressure. In this study, a real-time statistic based approach was adopted in carrying out risk-evaluation of loss circulation events in a wellbore. Based on the expected opportunity loss analysis, it is often non-negotiable to consider other options when the analytical solution suggests that the well should be “abandoned”. For the decision tree, at the decision node, D₁, the expected loss of the seal off zone option is $161.25, the expected loss of the drill ahead option is $19.2 and the expected loss of the abandon option is $13.2. Since the expected loss of the abandon option is less than the expected value of both the seal off and the drill ahead option, it is recommended to abandon the well. Furthermore, the risk analysis proved to be a veritable tool considering the cost implications of other options; and can also serve as basis for automated decision-making.

Abstract: The search for effective methods of management is one of the strategic directions of economic development. To obtain high-quality products, organizations should manage nonconformities and causes of product defects. The paper focuses on the analysis of groups of defects of welded joints using statistical methods. Welding process was considered as one of the processes of management. The possible causes of nonconformities were indicated. The method of failure modes and effects analysis was used to quantify the level of risk. A matrix of consequences and probabilities was presented, and critical risks and risk situations were selected. The proposed measures to eliminate or minimize negative effects enable identification of problem areas of the life cycle of welded structures.

Abstract: The paper deals with risk analysis of insufficient airtightness of the envelope construction. The risk analysis is a systematic and structured data processing to identify potential hazards. The main aim of paper is to qualified risks which arise from the danger, i.e. insufficiently airtight of the building envelope. The quality of airtight building envelope except for low energy consumption also minimizes the risk of damage to the structure associated with the spread of the heat, water vapor in the structure and fungal growth. The qualification of risks consists of choice of method and determinative indicators, input data and simulation of model with drawing results.

Abstract: Like the foundation structure, their proper design and good execution plays an important role in the issue of durability of structures, it is also very important to properly design and implement the base layer of foundation structures. Usually, the base layer formed viable subsoil, which are located in the subsoil. Substructure then form the base layer interaction system. The subsoil is not always such a layer that would allow the establishment directly to solid ground. Also, the material (mass concrete, reinforced concrete) foundation structures determines whether it is possible to establish a building directly on the hard soil or underlayer is necessary. Often such a base layer performs building materials arising as waste during mining (eg. coal) or as waste generated in blast furnaces (slag). Often the buildings are well established on the embankments. Individual types of base layers (subsoil) will be evaluated by a team of experts. The team consisted of 43 experts. These experts conducted an evaluation of each type of subsoil individually using the universal matrix of risk analysis - Umra. Umra method is based on the principle of comparative logical and numerical analysis assessing the degree (severity) of a danger to the the project or its component parts. A team of experts assesses the identified part of the problem (the project), which is subject to a certain risk. Number of parts of the problem evaluated by a team of experts is arbitrary, with different (or identical) parts can be handled independently by different expert teams with different number of experts.

Abstract: This paper makes a comparative analysis of the data recorded and used in inland transport activity utlizand information that is recorded in "electronic ship reporting" and "Automatic Identification System" in the standard River Information Services - Vessel Traking and Tracing combined with those additionally recorded in the logbook and in the seafarer’s service book. RIS recordings largely make the database necessary for keeping the Logbook, and differences can be evaluated through a matrix. The concentrated data set can be used to determine the working time of seafarers and establishing the compliance with promotion requirements based on the training fully recorded, to accumulate data necessary for shaping risk functions, to clarify the conditions under which shipping accidents occurred, with results in the recovery of losses by marine insurance, to a thorough and accurate risk analysis.

Abstract: Gas transmission pipelines mainly transport flammable fluids across the length and breadth of the country especially in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The associated risk to both the individuals’ encroaching and inhabiting areas along the right-of-way (ROW) and the society at large cannot be underestimated. Thus safety concerns considering the individual and societal risk of pipeline failures has become important. This paper attempts to develop a model for both individual and societal risk assessment for a 12km length natural gas transmission pipeline in Utekon community (commencing from the Benin-Auchi through Uhuwmunode Osina town and terminating in the Benin-Agbor axis) in Edo State using the Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis Method (CPQRA). The CPQRA is used because it examines the hazard zones within a pipeline ROW and the number of persons that would be affected by fire/explosion. Finally, field data was used in this study to validate the model which can be applied to any natural gas pipeline risk assessment scenario.

Abstract: This article deals with a risk analysis in water management. The first part of this paper highlights critical points of individual parts of water supply systems and divides individual hazards into groups depending on their origin. The second part of the paper deals with a risk analysis itself and with the basic division of methods for determining it.

Abstract: Cloud computing is Internet-based computing model which can share new information resources through virtualization, it can be dynamically according to the user needs to provide computing, storage, network bandwidth, software and other resources and it has great market potential and become the focus of the current IT giants construction of the project. However, just as other new things, there are flaws and loopholes need to continuously improve and enhance the development process in the future of cloud computing. In this paper, the development process of computing services of cloud security incidents is discussed and we analyzes the potential security risks of cloud computing services, security building and then put forward the ideas of security management development under cloud computing environment.

Abstract: BOT model are usuallyused in sludge drying and incineration project ,This model Effectively solvesthe government's funding gap, however, sludge drying and incineration project needslarge amount of investment and the project company face greater investment risk.How touse the scientific method for quantitative analysis of risk on drying sludgeincineration BOT project has become the most important issue.Based on a typicalproject, this articles analysis deeply the risk of the whole process of sludge incineration,and by quantitative andqualitative analysis, dentify the key risks led to project failure.