Papers by Keyword: Risk Assessment

Abstract: With continuous expansion of the grid, the power system structure is becoming more complicated, leading to more and more uncertainty of the system. Especially, the massive integration of wind power and other renewable energy to the grid brings more challenges. In this paper, by taking use of DSR (dynamic security region) and risk assessment theory, it proposed the transient risk index calculation and integrated analysis method for wind power integration system, which was able to give quantitative indicators of the system day-ahead scheduling plan. The efficiency and practicality of theories mentioned herein were verified by standard numerical examples.

Abstract: In order to evaluate the risk degree of the tailings pond’s dam-break disaster reasonably, according to statistical analysis of the tailings pond’s dam-break failure and "the tailings major hazards classification method" of our country, the improved "index weight method" is worked out, and the index partition method and weight assignment of the "index weight method" are analyzed and researched detailed. Combining with an engineering example to verify the improved "index weight method", and the sensitivity of index weight is discussed. The results of the analysis show that "index weight method" for the judgment of the risk degree of the tailings pond’ s dam-break disaster is more reasonable. It is more feasible for safety department to make division of attention to supervision level of the tailings pond according to the determination results.

Abstract: the risk assessment for development project is simply and highly efficient, requires less data, and can clearly uncover the problems. It is plausible to evaluate a plenty of development projects through computers

Abstract: Based on the grey theory, a grey correlation evaluation model (GCEM) was built for risk assessment of river water quality. Five pollutants are used for risk assessment indicators, while the risk class was determined by the maximum principle. The results indicate that the water quality risk is higher in Baoji Weihe River of China. Potassium permanganate index risk is the maximum and the second is BOD₅. The comparison with other methods confirmed that evaluation of GCEM is agreement with the actual condition. Moreover, this method is simple and solid for water risk evaluation and would be used for rive water environmental administration.

Abstract: Analyzing the characters and abstracting the system model of the distribution automation system, information security test-bed of distribution automation is designed. Meanwhile, information security test and evaluation framework is proposed based on the lifecycle of distribution automation system. The evaluation activities and the testing methods are analyzed and key problems and solutions of information security evaluation and reinforcement requirements for distribution automation system are introduced. The work in this paper can effectively support the information security protection of distribution automation system, and can provide reference for other power industrial control systems.

Abstract: Consequence assessment is an integral part of the risk assessment process. There are many types of consequences loss due to pipeline failure such as asset loss, environmental loss, production loss, and human health and safety loss (HHSL). This paper studies the comparison of HHSL between rural and urban areas due to pipeline failure subject to corrosion. The damage area of the explosion was calculated using Aloha software by considering the details of the selected sites such as atmospheric and topographical conditions. The HHSL was calculated using a mathematical equation of quantitative risk assessment in terms of the number of fatalities or injuries or both. The results of the assessments from rural and urban areas were then compared with one another to identify any significant dissimilarity. This study shows that there was a possibility to improve the decisive value of risk by implementing the proposed approach in consequence assessment in Malaysia.

Abstract: Risk assessment of debris flow is the core content and decision-making basis for debris flow disaster forecasting and the disaster prevention work. It is a comprehensive analysis for the geological, climate, rainfall, historical disaster activities and human engineering activities in some certain areas which may be in danger conditions, so as to determine the occurrence probability of debris flow. In this study, risk assessment model of the debris flow gully in Tibet southeast area is established. According to the correlation ratio of risk assessment indexes and the debris flow occurrence, the assessment indexes can be divided into three levels and defined with some certain values according to the correlation of debris flow occurrence. Finally, the risk assessment of debris flow gully in Tibet southeast area is conducted, and model outputs achieve a good result.

Abstract: Based on the operation and management of station, the research was mainly about the risk assessment method of the crowd crushing and tramping accidents in urban rail transit stations. The indicator system about the crowd crushing and tramping accidents in urban rail transit station was established. The C²R model of data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used in the risk assessment, and the model was solved with MATLAB programming. The result of the analysis is generally consistent with the actual situation.

Abstract: Asset assessment theory research lagging behind the industry development is an important problem existing in current assessment industry, and the construction of theoretical framework system is particularly urgent. Asset appraisal theory frame system is divided into the logical starting point and the theoretical framework. According to the connotation of asset assessment and the concept of the logic starting point in philosophy, the logic starting point of the asset assessment is thought to be the value discovery. According to the relationship to the logical starting point, establish a theoretical framework with four-layers, which takes the value found as the qualitative, nine evaluation factors as the kernel, takes the legal system, exam training, industry, rules and member acknowledges as the outer core, takes the institutional environment, economic environment, social and cultural environment etc. as the evaluating environment.

Abstract: Life-cycle cost management is the foundation and techniques for life-cycle cost management. Petri nets has a graphical expression, can improve and add more features and information to Fault tree analysis, Markov equations and so on, raising the speed and accuracy of the entire system of risk assessment. The paper propose a risk assessment based on the life-cycle management approach, establish four state model to analysis transformer substation main wiring operation, discuss elements occurring planned maintenance events and breaker tripping phenomenon, and propose using the basic equations of Petri nets to determine system status and calculate the corresponding probabilities, quantitative analysis of the outage costs of the substation main connection off for running, and seek the best value under the run. In the example discussing and calculating the risk indicators of outage costs for different wiring schemes, the results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed algorithm.