Papers by Keyword: Scenario Analysis

Abstract: The availability of fresh water in the required quantity is the major challenge in Karachi city. There is a need to evaluate the potential of available water resources and devise a suitable distribution mechanism for the city. This study aims to determine the current water situation of Karachi City and it predicts the future water situation till 2040 considering 30 gallons per capita per day (GPCD) as an annual requirement per person. The study is conducted with the help of WEAP software. WEAP software uses different scenarios to estimate future water needs. In the software, water needs of Karachi from 2020 to 2040 were assessed and analysis of water demand, unmet demand, supply delivered, and demand site coverage was carried out. During modeling, a growth rate of 2.31% per year was used. The result indicates that the water demand will increase to 759.064 million gallons per day (MGD) in 2040, so an extra supply of 336.564 MGD will be required to meet water demands and urbanization of the city. To meet this unmet demand, it is suggested that water leakage be reduced as proposed by the Karachi Water & Sewerage Board (KWSB). Moreover, water conservation techniques and the use of treated wastewater along with the existing water are recommended to reduce the unmet demand.

Abstract: The construction industry is a service sector that is often faced uncertain circumstances with a high rate of changes in its project operations. These changes not only often occur in the implementation (build) phase of a construction project, but it also happens in the planning (design) phase. In general, dealing with such uncertain circumstances means to have the possibility for failure in achieving the goals of a project. Even though changes and adjustments are common in this sector, it nevertheless will bring risks to the construction works. For example, the time, costs, and quality. Hence, a preventive system is needed with which can minimise the risks that may arise during the project activities. The objective of this research is to identify the caused factors of the risks on the construction business, and that to further suggest the applicable model as the preventive action of the risks. This study began with a detail review to seven risk indicators; Labour Risk (X₁), Contractual Risk (X₂), Human Resources Risk (X₃), Design and Technology Risk (X₄), Material and Tool Risk (X₅), Implementation Risk (X₆), and Force Majeure Risk (X₇). This research was developed further using questionnaires and expert validation as the primary data, which furthermore analysed using analysis factors, descriptive analysis, and probability impact matric in order to determine the level of the risks. The risk level analysis resulted three variables as the top event (dominant risk), which are X₁, X₃ and X₄. These findings were then advanced following Bowtie diagram and scenario analysis, hence suggested a modelling that described possible preventive and corrective strategies. Both the Bowtie diagram and scenario analysis are not only helpful as the guidance and warning, but also practical for the construction practitioners in managing the risk management and decision making for the construction project.

Abstract: A simple model of urban passenger transport was developed using computer based software called Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), the model was used to carry out a research associated with urban passenger transport in Beijing to analyze the situation of energy consumption and environmental emissions ofCO2, CO, CH4, N2O, NOx, and SO2 for the base year 2012 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. The paper established four scenarios of business as usual, public transport, new energy vehicle, and P&N, and assessed the energy consumption and environmental emissions reduction potential of each scenarios in order to propose an optimal transport policy which have an excellent effect on reducing energy consumption and environmental emissions.

Abstract: In order to formulate the medium-and long-term planning of aviation safety development, a qualitative prediction and analysis method known as scenario analysis method is introduced in the field of safety strategic planning. An actual example on an airline safety development in the future 5 years shows that the proposed qualitative prediction and analysis method has a good feasibility and effectiveness.

Abstract: As the energy and environmental crisis intensifies, controlling total carbon emission in electric power industry has been an important way to achieve the goals of energy conservation and emission reduction. Beijing and Tianjin have lanched carbon trading pilot successively. As a part of the co-ordination, it’s imperative for Jibei to join carbon trading. Controlling the total carbon emission can’t be separated with making carbon initial quota, which will certainly influence generating capacity of generating enterprises in Jibei. Consequently, Jibei grid should purchase more clean electricity in outside province. Firstly, common methods of carbon quota distribution have been introduced in this paper and three scenes of carbon emission reduction have been set. Then, generating capacity in Jibei has been calculated in three scenes, and the influence of purchasing power in outside province on Jibei grid has been analyzed. Result shows that Benchmarking and target constraint are both feasible and allocation scheme can be chosen reasonably based on the actual situation.

Abstract: Currently most researches on photovoltaic are for a single field such as market, policy and technology. This paper with scenario analysis method, considers the impact of various factors to build a variety of possible development scenarios. It forecasts the development trend of Chinese photovoltaic industry with situational analysis. And it raises suggestions of resolution for the different scenarios.

Abstract: In order to deal with subway emergency, the paper builds the emergency drill system based on scenario analysis for the security of persons and property within the subway. By participating in the drill system, make sure that units and division involved in the rescue and command system learn their responsibilities by heart under emergency, enhancing collaboration of various departments, improving the efficiency of emergency rescue, thus the rescue can be conducted orderly. This paper introduces the concept of subway emergency, emergency management and organization and the drill system.

Abstract: This paper aims to probe into the feasibility and applying strategy of the energy-efficiency optimization of college dormitory lighting system in Chongqing. It takes a college dormitory located in chongqing as an instance, through questionnaire and field investigation, the conclusion indicated that the indoor illumination during the daytime cannot meet the relevant national standards. And over 80 percent of the students are unsatisfied with the indoor lighting. The research on the optimization program of Photoconductive lighting system and energy efficiency lamp system demonstrate these two programs can save 5.7 tons of standard coal per year and 1.67 respectively. Then model the photoconductive lighting system. Finally it takes the Photoconductive lighting system and energy efficiency lighting systems promoted and compared in college dormitory of Chongqing to draw a conclusion that the annual savings of the system are approximately 21.8-22.4 million kwh electricity which equals to 8.72-8.94 one thousand tons of standard coal. This quantity is equivalent to a half of the electricity consumption of Chongqing Dadukou 2012 January-April.

Abstract: The scenario analysis method is used widespread in environmental management fields. Massive scenarios used in the applications lead to huge computing workloads and time-consuming. A parallel computing algorithm based on the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard was proposed to enhance the computing performance of scenario generating and calculating. By taking a river restoration planning problem as a case study, the proposed algorithm was applied in a decision support system and tested on a multi-core workstation. Experimental results show that when performed on a quad-core workstation, the algorithm reduced the execution time to a quarter of the former, with a stable speedup factor of 3.8 at different amounts of scenarios. It is indicated that the proposed algorithm is practical in environmental decision-making procedure, with special reference to the general scenario analysis method and other similar applications in the fields of energy and environment.

Abstract: Based on the relative data and materials, the energy flowchart of Sichuan province in 2008 was drew at first, then the energy input, output, consumption, corresponding pollutants emission of Sichuan province from 2000 to 2008 were analysed simultaneously. The results show that the total energy consumption reaches up to about 15144.96 tons of standard coal in 2008, the average annual growth rate is 8.42%. Coal and non-fossil energy consumption accounts for 65.35% and 8.44% of total energy consumption respectively. SO₂ emissions decreases by an average annual rate of 4.03% since 2005, but NO_X and CO₂ emissions increases with average annual growth rate of 6.58% and 8.37% respectively. In addition, the energy consumption and pollutants emission of Sichuan province during "the 12^th Five-Year Plan" are predicted and analysed within different scenario, then the development plan is proposed. Finally, suggestions of energy conservation and emission reduction in Sichuan province are proposed.