Papers by Keyword: Supply Forecasting

Abstract: Abstract.Blast Furnace Gas (BFG) system of an iron and steel works was considered. The relationship of gas amount and factors about BFG generation and consumption was analyzed by grey correlationand the BP neural network prediction model of blast furnace gaswas established based on artificial neural network for forecasting thesupply and demandof BFGinthe iron and steel-making processes.The scientific forecasting of BFG generation and consumption in each process was discussed undernormal production and accidental maintenance condition. The results show that established forecasting model is high precision, small errors, and can solve effectively actual production of BFG prediction problem and decreasing BFG flare, providing theoretical basis for establishing reasonable plans in the iron and steel works.

Abstract: When supply channels varied increasingly, key material supply forecasting has become indispensable to effective operations management. Rapid technological changes and an abundance of product configurations mean that the supply for key material is frequently volatile and hard to forecast. The paper describes a key material supply forecasting diagnostics tools based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). The tool was embodied parametric description of some important factors in key material supply forecasting. Furthermore, we developed this tool to pool supply patterns of little or no supply history data. Finally, we solve this reasoning problem with stochastic simulation.