Papers by Keyword: Volatility

Abstract: The disadvantage of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan power grid operation control mode is that the control effect is poorer and the spare capacity demand is big, this paper puts forward a new coordinated control strategy. First of all, this paper describes the relationship between the load, frequency, the output of generating unit, the tie line power and the area control error relationship of the whole power grid, according to the regional automatic generation control performance assessment criteria, concludes the characteristics of regional unit adjustment. This paper analyzes the contradiction between them, and then proposes a coordinated control strategy between the Beijing-Tangshan power grid and Tianjin power grid. The case simulation results prove the superiority and feasibility of the new coordinated control strategy. Compared with the original, the new strategy reduces the volatility of the unit, shortens the recovery time of frequency, and has a certain practical significance.

Abstract: Due to increase refined lead production and slow industrialization of lead-free solders, hazard of lead to human and environment still existed. Based on pollutions of lead depending on the volatility and the solubility of lead, the new ways to prevent and reduce the pollution of lead were put forward. The lead content in lead-solders could be reduced appropriately and the dense surface film could be formed by micro-alloying in the view of material for reducing the pollution. Low soldering temperature and the optimal soldering process or equipment could also be taken to reduce the pollution of lead.

Abstract: This paper analyzed the statistical data of the Baltic Capesize Freight Index (BCI) and the daily return rate sequences to improve forecast reliability of the international dry bulk shipping market. It used the first-order logarithmic difference method to get the BCI daily return rate sequence, showing that the BCI daily return sequence had a leptokurtosis and fat-tail fluctuation feature and other features such as integration. To analyze volatility persistence, sensitivity and hysteresis of the sequence, a GARCH (1, 1) model was introduced. The GARCH (1, 1) model constructed the forecast method of BCI sequence, and it predicted the BCI daily return rate by optimizing lag phases. The logarithm sequences of BCI daily return rate finally reverted to BCI, which was forecasted at last. The conclusion is supposed to improve the international dry bulk shipping market forecasting method.

Abstract: The results of this research indicate that among Taiex futures (ticker symbol: TX), Electronic Sector index futures (ticker symbol: TE), and Finance Sector Index futures (ticker symbol: TF); market interest rate, volatility, and liquidity all have significant influences on the basis of the same period. Furthermore, when VAR is used to examine if these three factors are leading indicators of basis; the results indicate that only the basis of Taiex futures is significantly affected by these three factors. In addition, this research also discovers that basis is affected by previous one or two periods basis, which reveals that basis is highly auto correlated.

Abstract: This paper reviews a long-term crude oil markets and trend of dynamic prices during 1986-2011. Based on the hypothesis that crude oil prices dynamics reflect the activity of a competitive market, a jump diffusion model is investigated to examine the empirical performance in a time series. Historical data analysis shows that crude oil prices were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, and were concomitant with underlying fundamentals of crude oil markets and world economy. Furthermore, the model forecast that crude oil prices will still have an increasing trend, stay in jump for the next couple of years.

Abstract: Thermal analysis has been employed to yield information on the volatility of the biodiesel/petrodiesel since the volatility influences the ignition quality of the fuels in a compression ignition engine. The chemical composition of -10 petrodiesel (-10PD) and soybean biodiesel (SME) was analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The thermal volatilization of biodiesel and its blends was investigated by thermogravimetry and liquid volatile theory. Volatile index was put forward for describing biodiesel/petrodisel volatility. A good correlation model was proposed for calculate the biodiesel/petrodiesel volatility by biodiesel blending ratio. The study showed that -10PD was mainly composed of long chain alkanes: C8–C26. SME was mainly composed of long chain fatty acid methyl esters: C14:0–C24:0, C16:1–C22:1, C18:2 and C18:3. The volatile indexes of SME and -10PD were, respectively, 1.74E-04 and 3.64E-05. The biodiesel fuel was considerably more volatile in comparison to the petrodiesel fuels. The SME/-10PD volatility had relation to SEM blending ratio, it was better with increasing the SME blending ratio.

Abstract: The output of photovoltaic generation system is influenced by the factors such as solar radiation, temperature and so on. So the change of photovoltaic generation power is a non-stationary random process that will impact on the grid. In order to promote large-scale photovoltaic generation connected to the grid, we need to configure energy storage devices for photovoltaic power station and in order to coordinate the allocation of photovoltaic system with energy storage system, we requires a thorough understanding of output characteristics of the photovoltaic system. This paper firstly analyzes the influence brought by the large-scale photovoltaic generation system connected to the grid and then introduces the effect factors of photovoltaic output. Based on the history data of the 100 kWp photovoltaic power station and the statistical method, the paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the photovoltaic output performance; finally puts forward the PV output power evaluation index. The conclusions of this study will provide powerful data references for follow-up studies and have practical value.

Abstract: The pollution soil from tar workshop’s foundation soil in a steel work, first of all, the main organic pollutants in pollution soil are examined by the Pony Test Center. Then, the volatility of the pollution soil at different temperature was studied by thermo gravimetric (TG) analysis coupled with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). At last, by adding standard reagents of PAHs respectively, their volatility of different temperature period was confirmed. The results indicated that the main organic pollutants in the contaminated soil were fluorene, acenaphthene, phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene and so on, the total content is about 156.39ppm. the weight loss of pollution soil mainly occurred at the temperature ranges of room temperature to 215°C, 215~670°C and 670°C~850°C. There were H₂O and CO₂ coupled with the weight loss. When temperature increased further up to and above 850°C, the weight tended to be stable. The volatilization of PAHs is mainly in the section of 215~670°C, and their fastest volatilized temperatures in pollution soil were lower about 30°C than their respective boiling points.

Abstract: GM-GARCH model is a new hybrid volatility model which integrates grey forecasting model (GM (1,1)) into GARCH model. As for the limitation of the parameters estimation algorithm of GM (1,1) model, a SVRGM-GARCH model is established to enhance volatility forecasting performance further. Firstly, support vector machines for regression (SVR) is utilized to estimate the parameters of GM (1,1) model (SVRGM). Then, the SVRGM model is used to modify the random error term sequence of GARCH model. An empirical research is performed on SSE Fund Index and SZSE Fund Index. The result shows that the SVRGM-GARCH model outperforms the GM-GARCH models and GARCH model, which indicates the model proposed in this study is an effective method for volatility forecasting.

Abstract: Thermogravimetry (TG) has been employed to yield information on the thermal volatilization of the fuels since the volatility influences the ignition quality of the fuels in a compression ignition engine. The chemical composition of -10 petrodiesel (-10PD) and waste oil biodiesel (WME) was analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The thermal volatilization of biodiesel and its blends was investigated by TG and liquid volatile theory. Volatile index was put forward for describing biodiesel/petrodisel volatility. A good correlation model was proposed for calculate the biodiesel/petrodiesel volatility by biodiesel blending ratio. The study showed that -10PD and WME had similar chemical composition and structure. -10PD was mainly composed of long chain alkanes: C8–C26. WME was mainly composed of long chain fatty acid methyl esters: C14:0–C22:0, C16:1–C22:1, C18:2 and C18:3. The volatile indexes of WME and -10PD were 1.47E-04 and 3.64E-05, respectively. The biodiesel was considerably more volatile in comparison to the petrodiesel. The WME/-10PD volatility was better with increasing the biodiesel blending ratio.