Reliability of Buried Pipeline Using FORM and Monte Carlo Simulation

The reliability estimation of pipelines is performed with help of the probabilistic method which considers the uncertainties included in the load and resistance parameters. The FORM (first order reliability method) is carried out to calculate the failure probability of corroded pipeline for the classified six distribution types of random variables. And the reliability of pipelines is assessed by using the failure probability. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM. It is noted that the failure probabilities of the linear and the power models for surface corrosion are similar and those of the two-phase model for surface corrosion are somewhat different for six cases of two failure pressure models such as ASME B31G and MB31G models. And it is also found that the FORM and the MCS give similar results for varying exposure time.

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