Research on High Arch Dam Failure Probability Based on Failure Mode
In order to overcome the weakness in traditional high arch dam safety evaluation without considering the randomness, failure mode and risk analysis, it is proposed to apply three indexes namely failure probability, economic loss and life loss to high arch dam safety evaluation. On the basis of the analysis of accidents and on-site measured data, expert discussion as well as analytical analogy and by means of Fault Tree Analysis, a probe is made into the four major failure modes and the causes of high arch dam failure, namely destabilization collapse, shear-slipping collapse, excess cracking and man-caused destruction. Based on the calculating of the probability of high arch dam shearing-slipping failure, the computational method and procedures are established by means of Second Moment Method for the calculation of the occurrence probability of the major failure modes of high arch dam. A study is made of the degree of correlation between the major failure modes and of the method for calculating the high arch dam failure probability under multi-failure-modes.
J. Alfaiate, M.H. Aliabadi, M. Guagliano and L. Susmel
Z. T. Chen and Q. W. Ren, "Research on High Arch Dam Failure Probability Based on Failure Mode", Key Engineering Materials, Vols. 348-349, pp. 597-600, 2007