Daily Maximum Electric Load Forecasting with RBF Optimized by AFSA in K-Means Clustering Algorithm
Electric load forecasting is an important aspect in the operation of energy market. Many researchers have tried various methods and have achieved considerable results. In this paper, we used Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN) to train data and forecast daily maximum electric load of a costal city in North China. In order to have a better result, we introduced Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm (AFSA) to optimize RBF and adjust the center of K-means clustering algorithm. Data mining techniques were also employed to select indicators with impact on electric load. By comparing the forecast values and actual data, we arrived at conclusion that RBF optimized by AFSA could produce accurate result in forecasting daily maximum electric load. We also found that climate factors (temperature, humidity and air-pressure) had significant impact on daily maximum electric load.
W. Shen and Y. S. Sun, "Daily Maximum Electric Load Forecasting with RBF Optimized by AFSA in K-Means Clustering Algorithm", Key Engineering Materials, Vols. 467-469, pp. 1225-1230, 2011