Using Gray Forecasting Estimates Cost of Aviation Project

Abstract:

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China aviation project has little sample and the traditional method can not estimate the project cost accurately. This paper proposes a method estimating aviation project cost based on gray systematic theory. We divide aviation product into systems or parts and regard them as cost estimation unit. The gray forecasting model GM (1, 1) was set up based on historical cost data of cost estimation unit. If the model’s precision doesn’t meet with the requirement of aviation project cost estimation, the revision model GM (1, 1) must be set up to raise the estimation precision The experimental results show the method can get the more high-accuracy estimation value using the little sample and is suitable for the cost estimation of the our country aviation project.

Info:

Periodical:

Materials Science Forum (Volumes 532-533)

Edited by:

Chengyu Jiang, Geng Liu, Dinghua Zhang and Xipeng Xu

Pages:

725-728

DOI:

10.4028/www.scientific.net/MSF.532-533.725

Citation:

M. Yang et al., "Using Gray Forecasting Estimates Cost of Aviation Project", Materials Science Forum, Vols. 532-533, pp. 725-728, 2006

Online since:

December 2006

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Price:

$38.00

[1] J.L. Deng: Grey System (National Defense and Industry Press, China 1985).

[2] S.F. Liu, T.B. Guo, Y.G. Dang and et al: Theory of Grey System and Its Application (Science Press, China 1999).

[3] J.Z. Yuan: Grey System and Its Application (Science Press, China 1991).

[4] J.Z. Yuan: Forest Economy, (1991) No. 5, pp.58-64.

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