Papers by Author: Qing Wen Ren

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Authors: Zai Tie Chen, Qing Wen Ren
Abstract: In order to overcome the weakness in traditional high arch dam safety evaluation without considering the randomness, failure mode and risk analysis, it is proposed to apply three indexes namely failure probability, economic loss and life loss to high arch dam safety evaluation. On the basis of the analysis of accidents and on-site measured data, expert discussion as well as analytical analogy and by means of Fault Tree Analysis, a probe is made into the four major failure modes and the causes of high arch dam failure, namely destabilization collapse, shear-slipping collapse, excess cracking and man-caused destruction. Based on the calculating of the probability of high arch dam shearing-slipping failure, the computational method and procedures are established by means of Second Moment Method for the calculation of the occurrence probability of the major failure modes of high arch dam. A study is made of the degree of correlation between the major failure modes and of the method for calculating the high arch dam failure probability under multi-failure-modes.
Authors: Zai Tie Chen, Qing Wen Ren
Abstract: It is proposed to make use of dam risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk value in evaluating the risk of high arch dam. The acceptable standards of risk for high arch dam in the developing country should not be set too high,it should reflect the level of economic and technology development, the policy for energy sources,the life value as well as the degree of the importance attached. Based on study of the characteristics of high arch dam and by means of the comparison of the levels of economic development, the life values and the degrees of the importance attached between developing and developed countries, as well as the analogy analysis of rare risk events occurring in developing countries, the reference value of the single high arch dam acceptable risk rate, economic loss risk and life loss risk in developing countries are found to be 10 /(yr dam) 6 ⋅ − , 10000$/(yr ⋅ dam) and 0.001person/(yr ⋅ dam) respectively;a method is worked out for determining the acceptable risk rate,the acceptable economic loss risk value and life loss risk value.
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