Papers by Author: Zai Tie Chen

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Authors: Zai Tie Chen, Qing Wen Ren
Abstract: In order to overcome the weakness in traditional high arch dam safety evaluation without considering the randomness, failure mode and risk analysis, it is proposed to apply three indexes namely failure probability, economic loss and life loss to high arch dam safety evaluation. On the basis of the analysis of accidents and on-site measured data, expert discussion as well as analytical analogy and by means of Fault Tree Analysis, a probe is made into the four major failure modes and the causes of high arch dam failure, namely destabilization collapse, shear-slipping collapse, excess cracking and man-caused destruction. Based on the calculating of the probability of high arch dam shearing-slipping failure, the computational method and procedures are established by means of Second Moment Method for the calculation of the occurrence probability of the major failure modes of high arch dam. A study is made of the degree of correlation between the major failure modes and of the method for calculating the high arch dam failure probability under multi-failure-modes.
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Authors: Zai Tie Chen, Qing Wen Ren
Abstract: It is proposed to make use of dam risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk value in evaluating the risk of high arch dam. The acceptable standards of risk for high arch dam in the developing country should not be set too high,it should reflect the level of economic and technology development, the policy for energy sources,the life value as well as the degree of the importance attached. Based on study of the characteristics of high arch dam and by means of the comparison of the levels of economic development, the life values and the degrees of the importance attached between developing and developed countries, as well as the analogy analysis of rare risk events occurring in developing countries, the reference value of the single high arch dam acceptable risk rate, economic loss risk and life loss risk in developing countries are found to be 10 /(yr dam) 6 ⋅ − , 10000$/(yr ⋅ dam) and 0.001person/(yr ⋅ dam) respectively;a method is worked out for determining the acceptable risk rate,the acceptable economic loss risk value and life loss risk value.
601
Authors: Zai Tie Chen
Abstract: Risk analysis can overcome the weakness of conventional safety evaluation of high-arch dams where the random nature of the load and resistance effect are ignored and the failure mode and failure disaster loss are not taken into account. On the basis of statistical analysis of the data of the failure arch dams and faulty and perilous arch dams in the world, it is deduced that the failure of high arch dam is mainly caused by super elevation floods, highly intense earthquakes, mountain landslides, abnormal temperature variation, explosion load, etc. Five major failure modes for high arch dams are suggested, namely dam abutment rock instability, fundamental plane instability, entire entity instability, excess cracking and extreme dam overflow. Based on the study of the failure mechanism of the major failure modes, a state function is established to calculate the failure probability of the major failure modes. An approach is developed to obtain the statistical quantity and the regularities of distribution of the load and resistance random variables.
269
Authors: Zai Tie Chen
Abstract: In view of the randomness in terms of high arch dam load, resistance and failure calamity loss as well as the fuzziness in terms of evaluation conclusion, a high arch dam risk evaluation system is established by means of risk analysis method. Natural factors, structural factors and human factors that lead to high arch dam failure are summed up on the basis of statistics. Through qualitative analysis coupled with quantitative estimation, it is determined that high arch dams generally involve five major failure modes: abutment rock mass destabilization, excess cracking, arch dam & dam foundation entire destabilization, extreme dam-overflow and destabilization of dam body along base plane. The state functions of individual major failure modes are established. An approach is made to the correlativity among the major failure modes and among the random variables within individual failure modes, and it is suggested that risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk value should be used to assess the risk of high arch dams. A certain high arch dam abutment instability risk evaluation has been provided.
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