Papers by Keyword: Risk Rate

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Authors: Atsuhiko Shintani, Tomohiro Ito, Yudai Iwasaki
Abstract: The stability of the high-speed running vehicle subjected to seismic excitations considering passengers' dynamics are considered. A vehicle consists of one body, two trucks and four wheel sets. A passenger is modeled by simple two degree of freedom vibration system. The equations of motion of the vehicle and passengers are calculated by Lagrangian equation of motion. Combining two models, the behavior of the vehicle subjected to actual seismic input considering passengers' dynamics are calculated by numerical simulation. The stability of the vehicle is evaluated by using the risk rate of rollover. We investigate the possibility of the rollover of the vehicle. We focus on the effect of the dynamic characteristics of the human and the number of the passengers when the vehicle is subjected to the seismic excitation.
Authors: Zai Tie Chen, Qing Wen Ren
Abstract: It is proposed to make use of dam risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk value in evaluating the risk of high arch dam. The acceptable standards of risk for high arch dam in the developing country should not be set too high,it should reflect the level of economic and technology development, the policy for energy sources,the life value as well as the degree of the importance attached. Based on study of the characteristics of high arch dam and by means of the comparison of the levels of economic development, the life values and the degrees of the importance attached between developing and developed countries, as well as the analogy analysis of rare risk events occurring in developing countries, the reference value of the single high arch dam acceptable risk rate, economic loss risk and life loss risk in developing countries are found to be 10 /(yr dam) 6 ⋅ − , 10000$/(yr ⋅ dam) and 0.001person/(yr ⋅ dam) respectively;a method is worked out for determining the acceptable risk rate,the acceptable economic loss risk value and life loss risk value.
Authors: Zai Tie Chen
Abstract: In view of the randomness in terms of high arch dam load, resistance and failure calamity loss as well as the fuzziness in terms of evaluation conclusion, a high arch dam risk evaluation system is established by means of risk analysis method. Natural factors, structural factors and human factors that lead to high arch dam failure are summed up on the basis of statistics. Through qualitative analysis coupled with quantitative estimation, it is determined that high arch dams generally involve five major failure modes: abutment rock mass destabilization, excess cracking, arch dam & dam foundation entire destabilization, extreme dam-overflow and destabilization of dam body along base plane. The state functions of individual major failure modes are established. An approach is made to the correlativity among the major failure modes and among the random variables within individual failure modes, and it is suggested that risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk value should be used to assess the risk of high arch dams. A certain high arch dam abutment instability risk evaluation has been provided.
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