Papers by Author: Jun Hai Ma

Abstract: On the basis of the studies done by scholars at home and abroad,we have a research on macroeconomic performance , regional economic development and efficiency of Weifang City based on the regional economic and industrial economic theory , And make an analysis of the industrial structure, state and existing issues of Weifang City based on it; Through a method of comparative , we analysis the internal structure’s change of Weifang City’s economic and advantages in geography in Shandong Province , have an analysis of the typical factor which affect its efficiency level, find the future position of regional economic development in Weifang City based on it . At last, made the corresponding policy recommendations to the regional economic development and industrial system optimization of the Weifang City.

Abstract: Selecting the main indicators of national economic development, using cluster analysis to evaluate 17 cites in Shandong Province with the perspective of economic development and dividing them into 4 similar city groups. Using super-efficiency DEA model to evaluate economic develop efficiency of the cities in different city groups. In this paper, we propose that new product promotion should be gradually covered from cities of higher efficiency to the lower ones in the city groups. The result of the study is to provide decision-making basis for developing specific strategies of product promotion.

Abstract: U.S. dollar index, oil prices, silver prices, DOW index, OECD leading index and the CRB index are selected and varying-coefficient regression model which has dynamic response to the various variables influence is applied to predict the gold price and improve the prediction accuracy in this paper. In addition, the weighted least squares is adopted as an estimation of the parameters, corrects the traditional least squares method defect which assumes the sample data weights equal points to the prediction, making sample weights larger closer with prediction points. In the choice of weighting function, the paper uses cross validation to gain smoothing parameter. In the last, we predicted the 12 months gold prices from January 2010 December 2010 applies varying-coefficient regression model.