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Scenario Analysis Method and Its Application in Medium- and Long-Term Planning of Aviation Safety Development Xu-Sheng Gan1,a, Jin-Liang Chen2,b, Hai-Tao Zhao2,c 1 XiJing College, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710123, China 2 Air Traffic Control and Navigation College, Air Force Engineering University,  Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710051, China a ganxusheng123@163.com, b chjl3836@163.com, c zht123@163.com Keywords: Scenario Analysis; Aviation Safety; Initial Probability; Simulative Probability Abstract.
Various scenarios predicted by the scenario analysis method does not always happen, but it help the decision makers to get rid of the habit of thinking, and is aware of of sudden, unexpected situation in the future development and plan the countermeasures in advance.
Delph method is used to collect the expert knowledge by expert forum and interactive talks, and determine the initial probability ratio of key event by qualitative description, quantitative process and knowledge expansion of experts knowledge.

Zhang, “Cement-based composite materials,” in Composite Materials Engineering, vol. 2, Springer Singapore, 2017, pp. 489–529. doi: 10.1007/978-981-10-5690-1_4
Alwash, “Effects of steel fibers geometry on the mechanical properties of SIFCON concrete,” Civil Engineering Journal (Iran), vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 21–33, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.28991/cej-2020-03091450
Abass, “EFFECT OF STEEL FIBER PROPORTION ON SIFCON MECHANICAL PROPERTIES,” Journal of Engineering and Sustainable Development, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 55–63, Feb. 2022, doi: 10.31272/jeasd.26.1.6
Tiware, “EFFECT OF FLY ASH AND ARTIFICIAL SAND ON THE COMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF CONCRETE,” international journal of advance research and science of engineering, 2018, [Online].
Selvaraju, “Characteristic of Slurry Infiltrated Fibrous Concrete (SIFCON) Produced by Partially Replacing Cement by Mineral Admixtures and Steel Fibers by Waste Plastic Fibers,” Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering Knowledge Journal homepage, vol. 7, pp. 1–15, 2019, [Online].

In Situ Observation of Failure Behavior for Plasma Sprayed Thermal Barrier Coating Systems under Static Loadings Satoru TAKAHASHI1,a, Masayuki YOSHIBA1,b, Raito KAWAMURA1,c and Yoshio HARADA2,d 1 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo 192-0397, JAPAN 2 Thermal Spraying Technology R & D Laboratory, Tocalo Co., Ltd., Kobe 658-0013, JAPAN a takahashi-satoru@c.metro-u.ac.jp, b yoshiba@ecomp.metro-u.ac.jp, c gutteri@ezweb.ne.jp, d y-harada@tocalo.co.jp Keywords: Thermal barrier coating, Plasma spraying, Ductile-brittle transition temperature, Thermally grown oxide, In situ observation, Failure analysis.
Introduction Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) have become today one of the indispensable technologies for hot-section components of advanced gas turbines, in order to realize the requirements not only for an energy saving but also for a global environmental protection [1, 2].
It is most important to find out the optimum compositional and structural conditions of coating components together with the optimum coating process conditions for designing the advanced TBC systems with more improved durability and reliability.
[3] Mechanical Performance of Advanced Materials, Ins.
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Aleksi� 2 1 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro 2 Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro 3 Institute of Security, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro Keywords: Composite Rods, Fatigue, Fiber Optic Sensors ABSTRACT An application of the embedded intensity based fiber optic sensors (FOS) for fatigue damage detection in cantilevered composite rods is presented.
UskokoviL, Advanced Composites Letters 8, 55 (1999) [6] P.S.
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Research on Grinding Model of Roller for manufacturing Involute Spline Fengshou Zhang1,a, Fengkui Cui1 , Chunmei Li1 and Xiaoqiang Wang 1 1 School of Mechatronics Engineering, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China, 471003 fengshouzhang@163.com Keywords: Involute spline, Roller, Grinding, Mathematics Modelling Abstract.
Zhou and et al.: Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, Vol. 41 (2005) No.12, pp.210-215
Zhou and et al.: Advances in Materials Manufacturing Science and Technology II.
Materials Science Forum, (2006), pp.448-451.

Fusion Engineering and Design, vol. 148, Nov. 2019, p. 111323
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International Journal of Engineering Research in Africa, vol. 46, Jan. 2020, pp. 15–31
AIP Advances, vol. 4, no. 5, May 2014, p. 057103

Saveliev, Study insulating and cooling roperties of the material on the basis of crushed foamglass and determination of its extinguishing characteristics with the attitude to alcohols, Materials Science Forum, 1006 MSF, (2020) 62–69
Rong-ji, Experimental Study on the Extinguishing Efficiency of Compressed Air Foam Sprinkler System on Oil Pool Fire, Procedia Engineering, 211 (2018) 94–103
Mao, Experimental Research of Integrated Compressed Air Foam System of Fixed (ICAF) for Liquid Fuel, Procedia Engineering, 71 (2014) 44–56
[26] Patent RU №2456037; A62C5/02 (2006.01) / Kruger Tino(DE), Dorau Günther (DE)/– reciv.: 2008151529/12 at 24.04.2008; publ.: 20.07.2012 (72); Advanced Compressed Air Foam Technology
Vinogradov, Consideration of thermodynamic processes formation of compressed-air foam in desing compressed air foam systems,Materials Science Forum, 1006 (2020) 11–18

Franus, Mechanical and durability properties of concretes incorporating natural zeolite, Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, 16 (2016), p.554-562
Key Engineering Materials. 761 (2018), p. 193-196
Modified plasters for restoration and finishing works /Advanced Materials Research, Vol. 923 (2014), p.42-47
Advanced Mater.
Rudenko, Shrinkage behavior of alkali-activated slag cement pastes, Key Engineering Materials, Switzerland, Vol. 761, 2018, pp. 45-48,

This investigation contributes valuable insights to developing advanced MMCs for high-performance engineering applications, demonstrating that the forging technique facilitates fine grain refinement, enhancing the abovementioned properties.
The study highlights the promising potential of hybrid composites in meeting the demands of advanced engineering applications for materials with better mechanical and tribological characteristics.
International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), Vol.14(5), 1-13
Composites Part B: Engineering, 194, 108040
Advances in Materials Science and Engineering, 2022, 1-10

Dargusch1,2 1 Defence Materials Technology Centre, Level 2, 24 Wakefield Street, Hawthorn, Vic 3122 Australia 2 CAST CRC, School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4072, Australia a mark.hodge@dmtc.com.au Keywords: DMTC, defence, aerospace, manufacturing, titanium, stainless steel, alloy, machining Abstract.
This paper describes an initiative of the DMTC focused on developing and optimising engineering capability in metals manufacturing for aerospace applications.
Introduction This paper describes an initiative of the Defence Materials Technology Centre (DMTC) focused on developing engineering capability in metals manufacturing for aerospace applications.
In order to coordinate a program focused on introducing best manufacturing and engineering practices into companies it is important to undertake an analysis of the current state of manufacturing performance and practices present in the partner organizations.
Acknowledgements DMTC, Seco Tools, BAE Systems, Avoca Engineering, Millatec Engineering, CAST CRC.