Reliability Model of Series and Parallel Systems under Imperfect Information

Abstract:

In the situation that unit failure probability is imprecise when calculation the failure probability of system, classical probability method is not applicable, and the analysis result of interval method is coarse. To calculate the reliability of series and parallel systems in above situation, D-S evidence theory was used to represent the unit failure probability. Multi-sources information was fused, and belief and plausibility function were used to calculate the reliability of series and parallel systems by evidential reasoning. By this mean, lower and upper bounds of probability distribution of system failure probability were obtained. Simulation result shows that the proposed method is preferable to deal with the imprecise probability in reliability calculation, and can get additional information when compare with interval analysis method.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 204-208)
• Pages: 4932-4935
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.204-208.4932
• Online since: October 2012
• Authors: Bin Suo*, Chao Zeng, Yong Sheng Cheng, Jun Li
• Keywords: Evidence Theory, Imperfect Information, Reliability, Series and Parallel Systems

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