Research on Systematic Risk Model of Embankment Dam Overtopping Flood

Abstract:

To solve the risk model for dam overtopping and instability of dam slope in the embankment systematic risk, the structural reliability theory is used in this paper. By using the single risk which has been calculated, the risk rate of embankment dam overtopping flood system can be approached. During the research of systematic risk rate, the problems which exist in the method of only using Bayesian networks solving systematic risk model are analyzed, then the methods of combining the structural reliability theory and Bayesian networks to solve the systematic risk model are put forward, which are also made use of to solve the systematic risk model of simplified embankment dam.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 212-213)
• Pages: 780-785
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.212-213.780
• Online since: October 2012
• Authors: Shuai Liu, Hui Peng, Chong Yang Zheng, Shao Lin Liu, Qin Long Yan
• Keywords: Bayesian Network (BN), Risk Model, Structural Reliability, Systematic Risk Analysis

References

[1] Xu Zhuqing, Zhang Guirong, Zheng Jun. Classification of Hidden Troubles and Corresponding Rapid Detection Methods about Sick Earth-rock Dam in China [J]. Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering. Vol.8, pp.50-51, 2010.

[2] Tian Chuan, Li Wei. Analysis the reasons of the earth-rock dam failures [J]. Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Vol.1, pp.273-275, 2011.

[3] Ma Rongyong. The risk analysis methods and application for earth-rock dam [M].Beijing: Science Press, 2004.

[4] Mo Chongxun, Dong Zengchuan , Ma Rongyong, Liao Xintian. Application study on overtopping risk analysis for Guangxi Chengbihe reservoir by Integrate-FOSM method[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering. Vol.27, pp.45-49, 2008.

[5] Li Qijun, Chen Zhaohe. Earth dam overtopping theory and application[M]. Beijing: China WaterPower Press, 2009.

[6] Hu Jianping, Liu Yalian, Zhou Cuiying. The cusp catastrophe model of the instability of earth-rock dam and critical conditions[J]. Sichuan Building Science. Vol.37, pp.127-130, 2011.

[7] Zhang Ming, Liu Jinyong, Mai Jiaxuan. Reliability analysis and design of slope stability of earth-rock dam[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering. Vol.25, pp.103-107, 2006.

[8] Yang Yujie, Li Xin, Zhou Jing. The Bayesian network model of dam-break risk analysis[J]. Yellow River. Vol.31, pp.119-121, 2009.

[9] Zhou Jianfang, Tang Chunyan, Xu Zhiyong. Application of Bayesian networks to dam risk analysis[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering. Vol.29, pp.192-196, 2010.