A Multivariable Grey Model Based on Optimized Background Value and its Application to Subgrade Settlement Prediction

Abstract:

Subgrade settlement is a complex process system. Commonly used single-point prediction models can’t consider the correlation between the discrete deformation monitoring points, which doesn’t adequately reflect the overall deformation law of subgrade. A multivariable grey model (MGM(1,n)), which is an expansion of the single-point GM(1,1) model for multiple variables, is introduced to resolve the above problem. Aiming at the drawback of background value in the traditional MGM(1,n) model, the functions with non-homogeneous exponential law are used to fit the accumulated sequences for every variable, reconstruct the calculating formula of background value, and gets a new MGM(1,n) model based on optimized background value (OMGM(1,n)). A case study shows that the forecast result of the proposed model is more precise and effective than these of the single-point GM(1,1) model and the traditional MGM(1,n) model for predicting subgrade settlement.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 256-259)
• Pages: 1721-1725
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.256-259.1721
• Online since: December 2012
• Authors: Han Bing Liu, Yi Ming Xiang, Huu Hung Nguyen
• Keywords: GM(1,1), Multivariable Grey Model, Settlement Prediction, Subgrade

References

[1] Asaoka A. Observational procedure of settlement rediction[J]. Soils & Foundations, 1978, 18(4): 87-101.

DOI: 10.3208/sandf1972.18.4_87

[2] Wei Wang, Tinghao Lu, Xiaoni Wang. Study on Settlement Curve of Ramp Loading Roadbed on Soft Ground[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2006, 27 (5): 791-94 (In Chinese).

[3] Hongjun Jing, Rurong Su, Ting Su. Study of settlement deformation prediction model of high embankment[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2007, 28(8): 1762-1766 (In Chinese).

[4] Yadong Huang, Tuqiao Zhang, Tingchao Yu, et al. Support Vector Machine Model of Settlement Prediction of Road Soft Foundation[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2005, 26 (12): 1987-1990 (In Chinese).

[5] Suihui Wang, Guorong Pan. A MATLAB-based multivariate grey model and its application[J]. China Civil Engineering Journal, 2005, 38(5): 24-27 (In Chinese).

[6] Guorong Pan, Dajie Liu. Dynamic modeling identification and predication in consideration of the adjacent point deformation[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2001, 30(1): 32-35 (In Chinese).

[7] Julong Deng. The basis of grey theory[M]. Wuhan: Press of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2002 (In Chinese).