Estimating Weights of Evaluation Factors on Basis of Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract:

Although the value of factor weight in an evaluation work is deterministic, the solving process is random, so connection between weight solution with digital characteristics or distribution functions of specific random variables or random process could be build. Using stochastic simulation method to get a lot of random solutions to the problem, expectation of the random solutions can be used as a estimation solution. On basis of idea of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper analyzed the probability process of calculating factor weight, and provided the procedures of estimating factor weight by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Through discussion and example in this paper, feasibility and validity of this method were proved, which may make foreshadowing for follow-up research work.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 268-270)
• Pages: 1735-1740
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.268-270.1735
• Online since: December 2012
• Authors: Yan Fei Tian, Li Wen Huang
• Keywords: Evaluation Factor, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Weight Estimation

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