Prediction Scheme of Railway Passenger Flow Based on Multiplicative Holt-Winters Model

Abstract:

The railway passenger volume has an obvious seasonal behavior, and has volatility and instability. The features of it brings a lot of difficulties to forecast the volume in short-term. To investigate the trends and seasonal variations of railway passenger flow, we discuss multiplicative Holt-Winters model as a method. This paper states the basic theory and algorithm of the model, and provides the experimental results by using the data of China railway passenger volume in 2006 to 2010. The result shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approaches

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 416-417)
• Pages: 1949-1953
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.416-417.1949
• Online since: September 2013
• Authors: Zhuo Min Wei, Hong Chao Song
• Keywords: Holt-Winter Model, Passenger Volume, Prediction, Railway

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