A Research Review of Project Risk Assessment Methods

Abstract:

Based on the domestic and overseas researches of project risk assessment methods, this paper classifies project risk assessment methods into subjective judgment methods, evidence and deduction methods, system simulation methods and other methods. After exploring their definitions, advantages and disadvantages, this paper points out that subjective judgment and empirical analogy become two mainstream risk assessment methods. In the end, this paper claims that a risk assessment method does not need any unfathomable theory for its obvious engineering characteristics, but focuses on operability and applicability.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 496-500)
• Pages: 2857-2862
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.496-500.2857
• Online since: January 2014
• Authors: Zhi Cheng Chen*, Lu Yao, Jian Jun Yang
• Keywords: Assessment Method, Project Risk, Review

References

[1] Deniz Kasap, Murat Kaymak, Risk Identification Step of the Project Risk Management [C], PICMET 2007, pp.2116-2120.

DOI: 10.1109/picmet.2007.4349543

[2] Chang Hong, Gao Yunli, Application of risk matrix method in project risk management [J], Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2007, 26(11): 134-137. (In Chinese).

[3] Chen Jian, Li Zhongmin, Tang Shuchun et al, Risk assessment of purchasing weapon system based on improved risk matrix method [J], Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2008, 30(10): 1918-1923. (In Chinese).

[4] Qian Hao, Ma Weizhen, Application of analytic hierarchy process to project risk management [J], Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, 2005, 24(3): 53-56. (In Chinese).

[5] Tang Xiaoli, Feng Junwen, Wang Xuerong, Project risk management based on analytic network process [J], Statistics and Decision, 005, 16: 056. (In Chinese).

[6] Huang Lande, Introduction to fuzzy math and its application [J], Math Report, 1996, 10. (In Chinese).

[7] Tian Fang, Application of fuzzy comprehensive judgment in risk analysis [J], Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2003, 25 (2): 174-176. (In Chinese).

[8] Su Ping, Ma Weizhen, Tian Yuanfu, Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in project risk management [J], Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, 2005, 24(6): 53-55. (In Chinese).

[9] Chen Chunmei, Zhu Xiuwen, Liu Jiangnan, Research on applying FMEA to project risk management [J], Journal of Hebei Institute of Architectural Science and Technology, 2004, 21(3): 83-87. (In Chinese).

[10] Zhao Zhenyu, Liu Yisheng, Yang Huachun, Application of fault tree analyzing method to risk management of a construction project [J], Modern Electric Power, 2002, 19(2): 95-99. (In Chinese).

[11] Zhao Hong, Li Yaju, Song Tao, Project risk management based on Bayesian network [J], Journal of Shenyang University of Technology (Social Science Edition), 2008, 1(3): 239-243. (In Chinese).

[12] Feng Nan, Li Minqiang, Kou Jisong et al., Software project risk management model based on Bayesian networks [J], Computer Engineering, 2007, 33(7): 41-43. (In Chinese).

[13] Li Jinlin, Xu Nannan, Risk assessment method studies for the weaponry and equipment project based on influence diagram [J], Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology, 2006, 26(z1). (In Chinese).

[14] Wang Qifan, Ning Xiaoqian, You Jiong, Advantages of system dynamics approach in managing project risk dynamics [J], Journal of Fudan University (Natural Science), 2005, 44(2): 201-206. (In Chinese).

[15] Wang Yue, Li Fang, Di Peng, Risk analysis of arms equipment development based on system dynamics [J], Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Information & Management Engineering), 2007, 4: 034. (In Chinese).

[16] Wang Renchao et al., Monte Carlo simulation of project network planning and schedule risk analysis [J], Computer Simulation, vol21. 4 2004. 4 pp.143-147. (In Chinese).

[17] Wu Wei et al., Progress risk research of major model projects based on Monte Carlo simulation [J], Journal of Air Force Engineering University (Natural Science Edition), vol4. 5 2003. 10 pp.7-9. (In Chinese).

[18] Tian Xinguang et al., Progress risk analysis of naval gun development based on multiple risk probability models [J], ACTA Armamentarii, vol29. 5 2008. 5 pp.521-525. (In Chinese).

[19] Ge Zhihao et al., Risk probability assessment method for complex system [J], Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, vol33. 9 2007. 9 pp.1025-1028. (In Chinese).

[20] Lv Jianwei et al., The Risk Analysis and Risk Management of Weapon System Development [M], National Defense Industry Press, 2005. 9. (In Chinese).

[21] Sun A, Li C. Research on project risk evaluation method based on Markov process[C]/Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing, 2007. WiCom 2007. International Conference on. IEEE, 2007: 5293-5296.

DOI: 10.1109/wicom.2007.1296

[22] Yang Chonghao et al., Study of risk quantification in the enterprise-wide risk management [J], Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, vol29. 3 2008. 6 pp.85-87 p.94. (In Chinese).

[23] Feng Nan et al., IT project risk assessment model based on ANN [J], Computer Engineering and Applications, 2006 42(6) pp.24-26. (In Chinese).

[24] Li Kan, Risk assessment method of weapon system development project based on support vector machine [J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, vol42. 11 2008. 11 pp.1851-1854. (In Chinese).

[25] Ji Zhiwei et al., Feature selection based on adaptive genetic algorithm and SVM [J], Computer Engineering, vol35. 14 2009. 7 pp.200-202 p.226. (In Chinese).

[26] Jia Zhengyuan, Application of Support Vector Machine Based on Rough Sets to Project Risk Assessment (RS-SVM) [C], ICCSS2008, pp.508-511.

DOI: 10.1109/csse.2008.1503

[27] Guo Jianyi, Implementing A Quantitative-Based Methodology for Project Risk Assessment DSS[C], Proceedings of the 27th Chinese Control Conference, 2008. 7, pp.730-734.

DOI: 10.1109/chicc.2008.4605452

[28] Fang Deying et al., Risk decision-making approach to it projects development based on real options [J]. China Soft Science, 2004. 2 141-145. (In Chinese).

[29] Wu Renqun, The application of optional theory in IT risk management [J], East China Economic Management, vol17. 1 2003. 2 pp.89-92. (In Chinese).

[30] Zhang Zigang et al., Applying utility theory to risk management of project [J], East China Economic Management, vol18. 4 2004. 8 pp.57-60. (In Chinese).