A Crime Decision-Making Model Based on AHP
As time goes by, hazard rate of the society would increase if crime prediction was not implemented. Based on objective factors of offenders and victims characteristics, AHP method can be established to get a quantitative and qualitative analysis on crime prediction. Crime prediction is a strategic and tactical measure for crime prevention. According to AHP analysis, two prediction models of the optimal predictive crime locations are put forward. Standard Deviational Ellipses Model and Key Feature adjusted Spatial Choice Model were formulated to account for the anticipated position with various elements from AHP method. These models could be applied in a computer simulation of situation tests of the series murders. Besides, applying those models in certain real case demonstrates how the models work. Through models comparison, the results are summarized that Key Feature adjusted Spatial Choice Model is more conducive in confirming the guilty place. In conclusion, the suggested models, including detailed criminal map, are easy to implement.
Shaobo Zhong, Yimin Cheng and Xilong Qu
F. X. Yan et al., "A Crime Decision-Making Model Based on AHP", Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vols. 50-51, pp. 885-889, 2011