A Quantitative Network Situation Assessment Method Based on Stochastic Model

Bo Yun Zhang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.513-517.768

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A Quantitative Network Situation Assessment Method Based on Stochastic Model

Abstract:

This paper describes the basic models of network security state evaluation system and concentrates on researching the situation assessment method with stochastic model. In the paper, which makes use of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HsMM), tries to simulate the operation of network system. The alert statistics, deriving from network defense system, is used as data sources to realize the evaluation of network security situation. HsMM modifies the HMM model concerning the hypothesis of some state-duration time in relation to exponential distribution, which coincides the description of the network systems operation in the real world. The experimental results imply that HsMM is an ideal security evaluation method.