A Forecast and Risk Assessment Model for Storm Surge Impacts

Abstract:

A new approach to risk assessment of storm surge and prediction problems was suggested. The model is based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) equations, which simply linearises all nonlinear models so that the traditional Kalman filter can be applied. Key factors describing storm surge disasters are considered in the model. Numerical simulations were carried out and tested with some actual observations of recent storm surge events and related damages in coastal regions of China. The results show a reasonable fit for storm surge disaster prediction and encourage the possibility of using the method for future studies.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 580-583)
• Pages: 2635-2641
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.580-583.2635
• Online since: July 2014
• Authors: Ling Zhang, Qiang Liu*, Shuo Yang
• Keywords: Extended Kalman Flter (EKF), Numerical Modeling, Risk Assessment, Strom Surge

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