Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Hybrid Poplar Using Maxent Modeling

Abstract:

Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling was used to predict the potential climate habitat distribution of Chinese hybrid poplar (clone I-63, I-69 and I-72). Occurrence data were collected from literatures. The Maxent model performed better than random with an average cross-validated AUC value of 0.96. Under the three future climate scenarios (emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1), the geographic distribution of suitable habitat would shift from southwest to northeast, the suitable habitat area of scenario A1B increased most compared to other two, the ranking of the loss habitat area was scenario B1 > scenario A2 > scenario A1B, and the gain habitat area was scenario A1B > scenario A2 > scenario B1. The results of this work could be used as scientific basis for adapting and mitigating Chinese hybrid poplar planting to a climate change.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 651-653)
• Pages: 1496-1503
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.651-653.1496
• Online since: September 2014
• Authors: Jin Song Dai, Fu Liang Cao*
• Keywords: Climate Change, MaxEnt, Niche Modeling, Risk Analysis, Species Distribution Modeling

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