Prediction of Ship Main Engine Exhaust Gas Temperature Using AR Model

Yue Wen Zhang; Yong Jiu Zou; Zhu Feng Liu; Peng Zhang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.697.244

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vol. 697Prediction of Ship Main Engine Exhaust Gas...

Prediction of Ship Main Engine Exhaust Gas Temperature Using AR Model

Abstract:

In order to forecast the malfunctional state of main power plant on ships through predicting the trend of unsteadily changed thermal performance parameters in main power plant system, this paper established AR model for thermal performance parameters using time series analysis method, by which to predict the change trend analysis of thermal performance parameters, and comparing the predicted values and the measured values. The actual application case of predicting a main engine’s exhaust temperature has been validated by using of the AR model, and results showed that: AR model can accurately predict the change trend of smoke temperature, and the prediction precision is higher, the average relative error was 0.25%.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volume 697)

Pages:

244-248

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.697.244

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Online since:

November 2014

Authors:

Yue Wen Zhang*, Yong Jiu Zou, Zhu Feng Liu, Peng Zhang

Keywords:

AR Model, Fault Prediction, Main Engine’s Exhaust Temperature, Time Series Analysis

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* - Corresponding Author

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