A Method for Predicting Air Traffic Network Flow by Short-Term Probability

Abstract:

The main task of air traffic management is making adjustments when traffic flow reaches to the maximum capacity of air traffic control. It aims to increase the use ratio of airport and airspace. Air traffic flow prediction is one important part of air traffic management. Usually, air traffic prediction is divided into deterministic flow prediction and probability prediction .We research on the probability prediction on the basis of deterministic flow prediction. By analyzing aircrafts’ experienced flight time distribution, giving experienced distribution function and computing method. The data analysis shows that the accuracy rate increased by 22%.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 713-715)
• Pages: 1500-1503
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.713-715.1500
• Online since: January 2015
• Authors: Jin Feng Kong*, Yu Wang
• Keywords: Air Traffic Flow, Air Transportation, Probability, Short-Term Prediction

References

[1] Ge Bojun: The flow prediction problem of short-term flight, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, (2008).

[2] Iymperopoulou I, Ligers J, and Lichenin A: Model based aircraft trajectory prediction during takeoff, AIAA Guidance Navigation and Control Conference and Exhibit Conference, Keystone Colorado, (2006).

DOI: 10.2514/6.2006-6098

[3] Peng Ying: Method of estimating dynamic track, Journal of traffic and Transportation Engineering, 61~65.

[4] Mueller ER, Chatferji GB: Analysis of aircraft and departure characteristics, AIAA-2002-5866, (2002).

[5] WankeC, ZobellS, SongL: Probabilistic airspace congestion management. AIAA-2005-433, (2005).

[6] GilboE, SmithS: Probabilistic Prediction of Aggregate Traffic Demand using Uncertainty in Individual Flight Predictions, AIAA-2009-6194, 2009.

DOI: 10.2514/6.2009-6194