A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Forecasting the Price of Jasmine Rice

Yupapin Atikankul

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.804.304

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vol. 804A Comparison of Statistical Methods for...

A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Forecasting the Price of Jasmine Rice

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to compare five forecasting statistical methods on the price of Jasmine rice. These methods are Simple Exponential Smoothing method, Holt’s method, Holt–Winter’s method, Box–Jenkins method and combined forecast based on regression method. All methods are tested on the data collection of the monthly series of the price of Jasmine rice from January 2007 to December 2012 recorded by the Bank of Thailand. By using the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE), the Holt’s method is the most promising method. In addition, Government and authorities should use this result for forecasting the price of Jasmine rice.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volume 804)

Pages:

304-307

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.804.304

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Online since:

October 2015

Authors:

Yupapin Atikankul*

Keywords:

Forecasting, Jasmine Rice Price, Time Series

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* - Corresponding Author

References

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