An Estimation of Thailand's Hourly Solar Radiation Using Markov Transition Matrix Method

Abstract:

To estimate global solar radiation from easy available weather forecast data (sky condition), Markov model is used for this estimation. The five-year (1996-2000) global radiation data that are taken at an hour intervals from Nakhon Pathom station, Thailand (latitude 13.81ºN and longitude 100.04ºE) are used to construct the Markov transition matrices. The global radiation sequences in 2000 will be generated by based on the characteristic probability of moving global radiation values which were observed from the obtained data during 1996-1999. The autocorrelation function is used for checking the order of probability of moving obtained data. In this study, the five first and five second-order Markov transition matrices (MTMs), which are selected from the autocorrelation functions, are constructed, each MTMs will be used for generating global radiation values in each day with different sky conditions (clear, partly cloudy, mostly cloudy, cloudy and overcast). From the results of comparison between the statistical characteristics of observed and two synthetic generated data, global radiation data behavior slightly improved by the second order Markov model.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volume 839)
• Pages: 29-33
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.839.29
• Online since: June 2016
• Authors: Anuchit Wibun*, Pipat Chaiwiwatworakul
• Keywords: Global Solar Radiation, Markov Model, Synthetic Generation, Thailand Weather Data

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