A New Landslide Forecast Method and its Application in an Opencast Coal Mine

Abstract:

In order to find the controlling factors of slope stability and instability criterion for slope engineering, and provide a theoretical basis for developing landslide control technique, the regression function and regression parameter were obtained by applying the generalized least square method, and the partial linear model was derived after the regression analysis for the slope horizontal displacement and monitoring time by using B-spline method. The front several terms of the Taylor’s series were intercepted after the function of the partial linear model was expressed as Taylor’s series expansion. The cusp catastrophic model was eventually obtained by means of variable substitution, and the risk of landslide would be recognized with the aid of the catastrophic criterion. The method of landslide forecast was verified by the field monitoring data.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 383-390)
• Pages: 4499-4505
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.383-390.4499
• Online since: November 2011
• Authors: Yan Bo Zhang, Jing Min Yu
• Keywords: Catastrophic Theory, Forecast, Landslide, Slope Engineering

References

[1] James J Heckman. Social problems analysis by using horizontal data and vertical data[J]. Journal of Chongqing Institute of Commerce, 2001 (4) : 1.

[2] Liu Hongyun, Meng Qingmao. A review on longitudinal data analysis method and its development[J]. Advances in Psycho- logical Science, 2003, 11 (5) : 586 - 592.

[3] Tian Ping, Xue Liugen. The rth mean consistency of estimators in semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data[J]. Mathematica Applicata, 2008, 21 (3) : 535 - 541.

[4] Lin X H, Carrol R J. Semiparametric regression for clustered data using generalized estimating equations[J]. Journal of the American Statistic Association, 2001, 96: 1 045 - 1 056.

[5] Xie Yanming, Xu Guiqin. Longitudinal data analysismethods in the evaluation of clinical efficacy of the app lication[J]. China Journal of BasicMedicine in Traditioanl ChineseMedicine, 2007, 13 (9) : 711 - 713.

[6] He X M, Zhu Z Y, Fung W K. Estimation in a semiparametric model for longitudinal data with unspecifiel dependence structure[J]. Biometrica, 2002, 89 (3) : 579 - 590.

DOI: 10.1093/biomet/89.3.579

[7] Tian Ping, Ma Guofeng. The estimation method of longitudinal data in partial linearmodel[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2006 (9) : 9 – 11.

[8] Fan J Q, L i R Z. New estimation and model selection p rocedures for semiparametric modeling in longgitudinal data analysis[J]. Journal of the American StatisticlAssociation, 2004, 99: 710 - 723.

[9] Cheng Xuejun, CaiMeifeng. A grey-catastrophe model and its app lication in acoustic emission monitoring[J]. ChinaMining Magazine, 1997, 6 (2) : 37 - 39.

[10] Jiang Deyi, Zhu Hehua, Du Yungui. Stability analysis and p revention study on landslide[M]. Chongqing: Chongqing University Press, 2005: 152 - 154.

[11] Tang Chun'an. Catastrophe in rock unstable failure[M]. Beijing: China Coal Industry Publishing House, 1993 : 112 - 121.