Reliability Analysis on the Repaired Shaft Project Based on an Improved Response Surface Method

Abstract:

In order to analyze the reliability and failure probability of the repaired shaft engineering, this article makes fail-safe analysis and instability risk prediction of the shaft engineering. A reliability analysis method was applied combining the improved response surface method which has improved sample points’ selection based on the traditional response surface method to decreasing the number of the structural analysis under the premise of the accuracy of the calculated results with numerical simulation. The limit state whose failure criteria was safe factor was constructed to analyze the reliability of the repaired shaft engineering, the reliability index of the repaired shaft engineering was computed by JC method. The results show the reliability index value of the repaired shaft engineering is 3.1127 slight fewer than design objective value and it’s failure probability value is 0.0929%, which show that the repaired shaft is stable and it’s deformation should be monitored to ensure it is safety application because of it is reliability index value slight fewer than design objective value.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volume 402)
• Pages: 598-601
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.402.598
• Online since: November 2011
• Authors: Lu Dong, Qian Gao, Shu Hua Zhai, Bin Yue
• Keywords: Improved Response Surface Method, Performance Function, Reliability, Response Surface Method (RSM), Shaft Project

References

[1] Guofan Zhang: Engineering structure reliability theory and application ( Dalian University of Technology Press, Dalian 1999) (in chinese)

[2] Yonghua Su, Zulie Fang and Qian Gao: Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering.Vol. 19(1) (2000), p.55 (in chinese)

[3] Xiaohui Pan, Jianguo Wang and Xinrong Liu: Chinses Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering. Vol. 24(s2) (2005), p.5874(in chinese)

[4] Liang Huang, Weijian Yi and You Wang: Rock and Soil Mechanics. Vol. 29(2) (2008), p.370(in chinese)

[5] Gayton N, Bourinet J M,Lemarie M: Structural Safety. Vol. 25(12) (2003), p.99

[6] Bucher C G,Bourgund U: Structural Safety. Vol. 7 (1990), p.57

[7] Rajashekhar M R, Ellingwood B: Structural Safety. Vol. 12(3) (1993), p.885

[8] Youliang Ding, Aiqun Li and Xiaozheng Yao: Chinese Journal of Applied Mechanics. Vol. 26(1) (2009), p.66 (in chinese)

[9] Box,G. E.P, Wilson, K. B: J.of the Royal Star Society Series B. Vol. 13 (1951), p.1

[10] Kunming Wu, Jianguo Wang and Xiaohui Tan. et al: Journal of Hefei University of technology. Vol. 32(6) (2009), p.885(in chinese)

[11] Qian Gao, Shunchuan Wu and Linhai Wan: Civil engineering reliability theory and its application (china Building Material Industry Publishing House, Beijing 2007) (in chinese)