Prediction of the Future Runoff of the Upper Hanjiang Basin under the Climate Change Conditions

Abstract:

Under the A2 climate change scenario, the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin are predicted by coupling the general circulation models (GCMs) and hydrological models. The future precipitation and temperature are obtained by downscaling CGCM2 and HadCM3 outputs using the Smooth Support Vector Machine (SSVM) method, and then they are used as input to the two parameter monthly water balance model and the distributed VIC model, respectively, to predict the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin. The results of both hydrological models show that the future runoffs projected on the basis of CGCM2 outputs will decrease in 2020s (2011~2040), increase in 2080s (2071~2100), and show no significant change in 2050s (2041~2070), when compared to the average level of runoff during the baseline period of 1961~2000. For the A2 climate change scenario simulated by HadCM3 outputs, the future runoffs simulated by both hydrological models will increase in 2050s and 2080s. While for 2020s, decrease is predicted by the two parameter monthly water balance model, but no significant change is predicted by the distributed VIC model.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 518-523)
• Pages: 4194-4200
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.518-523.4194
• Online since: May 2012
• Authors: Jing Guo, Kai Yu Cheng, Li Hua Xiong, Hua Chen
• Keywords: Climate Change, Distributed VIC Model, Runoff, SSVM, Statistical Downscaling, Two Parameter Monthly Water Balance Model

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