Fingerprint-Based Attribution Study of Climatic Changes in the Hai River Basin of China

Abstract:

Many observational facts and studies have shown that the climatic conditions in the Hai River Basin, which is the political and cultural centre of China, changed significantly over last half of the 20th century. This study attempts to evaluate the variability of climatic elements such as precipitation and temperature in the basin based on observed meteorological data, and the temporal variations and sudden changes of precipitation and temperature during past 40 years (1961-2000) are analyzed combining moving-average and linear regression with Mann-Kendall method. In addition, the observed climatic changes are attributed to different factors including natural variability and anthropogenic forcing using the fingerprint-based attribution method. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation slightly decreased and the estimated sudden change time was 1965, the temperature significantly increased and the estimated sudden change time was 1964; 2) natural climate variability may be the factors responsible for the observed precipitation changes during the past 40 years in the basin, while anthropogenic forcing may be the main factors responsible for the observed temperature changes during the past 40 years in the basin.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 518-523)
• Pages: 5798-5804
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.518-523.5798
• Online since: May 2012
• Authors: Xiang Yi Ding, Yang Wen Jia
• Keywords: Attribution, Climatic Elements, Fingerprint, Hai River Basin

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