Forecast of China's PV Application System with GM (1, 1) Model

Abstract:

Based on China's Photo Voltaic Energy Application Status Analysis, the paper forecast and analyzed photo voltaic applications installed capacity by combining the grey GM (1, 1) model with the second-order weakening buffer operator. The results of the forecast showed that the annual growth rate of total installed capacity of PV applications is 17.4% during "The 12th Five-Year Plan", to reach 14829.55 MW which can achieve the basic planning objectives by 2015. The future of renewable energy accounting for the proportion of energy consumption will become increasingly large. Judging from the forecast results, due to the PV Application market uncertainties highlight, the Government should continue to promote technical progress, improve energy efficiency, in order to better promote the development of PV Application market.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 608-609)
• Pages: 51-56
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.608-609.51
• Online since: December 2012
• Authors: Ye Qing Guan, Zhao Lai Li, Wen Qing Zhu
• Keywords: GM(1,1), Installed Capacity, Prediction, Pv System

References

[1] Yande Dai, Dongming Ren. From the Energy Issues Facing Our Social and Economic Development Status and Role of Renewable Energy Development [J]. Renewable energy, 2005(2): 4-8.

[2] H, Arif，A, Zeyad. A Key Review on Present Status and Future Directions of Solar Energy Studies and Applications in Saudi Arabia [J]. Renewable & SustainableEnergy Reviews, 2011, 15 (9): 5021—5050, 30.

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2011.07.052

[3] EPIA. 2011 Global PV Industry Development Report. 2011.

[4] Yiming Wei, Hua Liao, Ying Fan. "Eleventh Five-Year" Period, China's Energy Demand and Energy-saving Potential of Prediction [J]. Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2007, 22 (1): 20-25.

[5] Chunhua Yin, Peiliang Gu, Based On the Gray Sequence of Energy Generated In the Buffer Operator [J]. Systems Engineering, 2003, 18 (2): 189-192.

[6] Xingjie Yu, Jianxia Chang, Qiang Huang, et al. Extension Method in Energy Demand Forecast [J]. Water Resources and Power, 2007, 25 (6):154-156.

[7] Zhengnan Lu, Zhijuan Zhang. China's Wind Power Industry Installed Capacity Forecast [J]. Technology and Management, 2011, 13 (1): 77-80.

[8] Jifeng Li, Anling Zhang. Development Prediction Method for China's New Energy and Renewable Energy [J]. Renewable energy, 2004, 3 (2): 1-4.

[9] Sheng Hong Ma, Bin Li, Dongbing Chen. China's Photovoltaic Power Generation Costs, Prices and Technical Progress the Role of Analysis [J]. Solar, 2010, 4 (1): 6-13.

[10] Wei, Y. M., Liang, Q. M., Fan, Y. et al. A Scenario Analysis of Energy Requirements and Energy Intensity for China's Rapidly Developing Society in the Year 2020 [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 73(4): 405—421.

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2004.12.003

[11] Yanji Li, Rundong Li, Lei Feng, et al. Based On the Gray GM (1) Model to Predict Solid Waste Gasification Burning Pollutant Emissions [J]. East China Electric Power, 2008, 36 (4): 87-90.

[12] Wei Wang, Zhengfu Liao. Application GM (1, 1) Model to Predict Urban and Long-term Water Consumption [J]. Shanxi Architecture, 2011, 37 (22): 127-128.

[13] Sifeng Liu, Yaoguo Dang, Zhigeng Fang. Grey System Theory and Its Applications (fifth edition) [M] Beijing: Science Press, 2010, 146-149.

[14] Fan, Y., Liao, H., Wei, Y. M. Can Market Oriented Economic Reforms Contribute to Energy Efficiency Improvement? Evidence from China. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(4): 2287—2295.

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.07.011