Analysis on Influence Factors of Top Corner Gas Concentration and Trend Prediction

Abstract:

To prevent the top corner gas on coal face concentration exceeded and the gas accident, The influence factors of gas concentration were analyze, the model of top corner gas concentration forecast was constructed based on chaos theory, and analyzed the real gas concentration data, forecasted the future data of the coal mine. The results show that top corner gas is influenced by the factors such as ventilation way, gas content, coal output and so on, the maximum Lyapunov exponent is 0.068, the time series is chaotic, and in the phase space, time delay is 4, embedding dimension is 3, the model parameter a is 1.221 7, b is -1.044 7, the absolute error is -0.024~0.031, the relative error is -2.82%~3.99%, and RMSE (root mean square error) is 0.014 9, the predictive results tally with the real ones, which can guide gas management work.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 634-638)
• Pages: 3650-3654
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.634-638.3650
• Online since: January 2013
• Authors: Shui Wen Liu, Shi Jia Qu, Ji Lai Li, Lin Chao Dai
• Keywords: Chaos Theory, Gas Concentration Exceeded, Influencing Factor, Time Series, Top Corner, Trend Forecast

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