A Grey System Theory in Construction Industry Default Prediction

Wen Haw Huang; Hui Ping Tserng; Po Cheng Chen; Manh Duy Nguyen

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.831.495

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vol. 831A Grey System Theory in Construction Industry...

A Grey System Theory in Construction Industry Default Prediction

Abstract:

This is the study to utilize logistic regression before apply grey system theory to predict construction contractors default.Differ from previous research, this research try to reduce the number of financial ratio for default prediction and employs the area under curve (AUC) to assess the model performance. The empirical results show that the most favorable financial ratio has an acceptable discriminatory power under AUC curve. The result of this research indicates debt ratio plays an important role in construction contractors default prediction.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volume 831)

Pages:

495-500

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.831.495

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Online since:

December 2013

Authors:

Wen Haw Huang*, Hui Ping Tserng, Po Cheng Chen, Manh Duy Nguyen

Keywords:

Construction Industry, Financial Ratio, Grey System Theory, Logistic Regression

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