Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) Prediction Based on the Double Species Model

Abstract:

With climate change and energy security being growing concerns, Electric Vehicles (EVs) growth has taken on an accelerated pace. This research aims to predict Chinese EVs and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) stock in the forth coming 40 years. We introduce the double species model to fulfil this program, by solving the model and computer simulating, two trajectories for their growth under different scenarios400 vehicles and 500 vehicles per thousand people at 2050 year are obtained. It reveals that, (i) ICEVs is already in booming stage and will last 16-18 years. (ii) EVs has a golden stage which will last 13-14 years, and before this prospective stage, there is an initial slow growth period which will probably last 10-11 years. (iii) Under each scenario, the difference between EVs and ICEVs stock at year 2030 is 8.63%-10.13%, which confirms that Chinese ambitious EVs development program may be realized if government provides strong policy supports on this new industry. Its contribution is a new method to predict EVs as well as getting two interactive trajectories for EVs and ICEVs growth.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volume 918)
• Pages: 101-105
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.918.101
• Online since: April 2014
• Authors: Shi Jun Fu
• Keywords: Computer Simulation, Double Species Model, EVs Prediction, ICEV Prediction

References

[1] B. Van Bree, G. P. J. Verbong and G. J. Kramer: A Multi-Level Perspective on the Introduction of Hydrogen and Battery-Electric Vehicles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol. 4, No. 77 (2010), pp.529-540.

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.12.005

[2] K. He: Oil Consumption and CO2 Emissions in China's Road Transport: Current Status, Future Trends, and Policy Implications. Energy Policy Vol. 2, No. 33 (2005), pp.1499-1507.

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2004.01.007

[3] L. Timur G, Socrates Kypreos, Hal Turton and Leonardo Barreto: An Energy-Economic Scenario Analysis of Alternative Fuels for Personal Transport Using the Global Multi-Regional MARKAL Model. Energy Vol. 10, No. 34 (2009), pp.1423-1437.

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.04.010

[4] K. Buttion, N. Ngoe, and J. Hine: Modeling Vehicle Ownership and Use in Low Income Countries. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy Vol. 27, No. 1 (1993), pp.51-67.

[5] T. Zachariadis, Z. Samaras and K. Zierock: Dynamic Modeling of Vehicle Populations: An Engineering Approach for Emissions Calculations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol. 3, No. 50 (1995), pp.135-149.

DOI: 10.1016/0040-1625(95)00057-h

[6] P. Kobos, J. Erickson and T. Drennen: Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth. Contemporary Economic Policy Vol. 21, No. 2 (2003), pp.200-217.

DOI: 10.1093/cep/byg005

[7] A. J. Lotka: Undamped Oscillations Derived from the Law of Mass Action. J. Am. Chem. Soc. Vol. 5, No. 42 (1920), pp.1595-1599.

DOI: 10.1021/ja01453a010

[8] C. Zhu, G. Yin: On Hybrid Competitive Lotka-Volterra Ecosystems. Nonlinear Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications Vol. 12, No. 71 (2009), pp.1370-1379.

DOI: 10.1016/j.na.2009.01.166

[9] D. Zhou et al.: China's Sustainable Energy Scenarios in 2020. China Environmental Science Press, Beijing, China (2003).